Despite China and India both being headed by their most consequential leaders of the last few decades, the two haven’t been able to permanently resolve their outstanding disputes. This is more intriguing because, even though India has never been an aggressor, China prefers to keep the borders simmering and compels India to constantly look over its mountainous shoulders, trying to anticipate idiosyncratic moves by its northern neighbour. A radical resolution is the need of the hour.
The recent disengagement in eastern Ladakh is transient if not illusory. Normalisation will continue to remain tenuous and fragile, captive to the larger geopolitical situation. A Quad faceoff in the South China Sea, not impossible with Trump in the White House, could instantly set the clock back to 2020, vaporising current gains.
The onus for this imbroglio must fall on Chinese President Xi Jinping. It is intriguing that he hasn’t seen value in ending military engagement with a peace-loving, yet nuclear-armed neighbour. India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has never baulked at doing what is diplomatically proper. It is Xi who had upped the ante in Doklam and later in Galwan and Arunachal, and even refrained from attending the G20 conference.
There is little doubt that both India and China need each other, not only geopolitically but also economically. At a time when western companies are determined to de-risk their supply chains away from China, a collaboration is mutually beneficial. For several reasons, now is the most opportune time for Xi to reach out to Modi for a permanent settlement of disputes.
First, as is evident from the communique issued in the October 2022 Plenary of the Communist Party of China (CPC), Xi has heralded his period as a “New Era” in Chinese history — for achieving “new and significant” progress for the party and country on all fronts. He must now live up to this promise. Second, it is evident now, as never before, that India is not a Five Eyes crony. Third, India has shown it can adopt an independent line of self-interest when it comes to choosing between the United States (US) and Russia, even when the latter is aligned with China. Fourth, the Chinese economy, especially its real estate market and its manufacturing industry, is in the weakest state it has been in the last few decades and needs a dramatic external stimulus; collaboration with a growing India can only be beneficial for it. Fifth, China’s anti-India actions will only justify and spur India’s more salient participation, as a key Quad member. Sixth, India-China economic collaboration can benefit the floundering Belt and Road Initiative, patently a Xi initiative, that is causing him embarrassment. Seventh, permanent peace on the borders is what both countries badly need; this will allow them to release vital resources for their restless hinterland. Politically, while any incremental settlement with India will be subjected to prolonged critique by the CPC, a permanent solution with definitive gains will be deemed reformatory and revolutionary and will be rapidly internalised.
Why is Xi the best suited to change the course of history? Xi has an inner craving to go down in history as the greatest leader of all time. Journalist Francois Bougon, in his book, Inside the Mind of Xi Jinping, says, “Xi Jinping wants to become the world’s most powerful leader.” Sinologist Geremie Barme describes Xi as the “Chairman of Everything (COE)”, because he manages everything. According to The Economist, “Mr Xi understands power, is not afraid to use it, and is willing to take risks.” Biographer Michael Sheridan, in The Red Emperor, describes Xi as an absolute ruler whose word is law on everything from war and peace, as he wants to make China the supreme power in the East, “a loner and a risk-taker, he is the most consequential leader of our time”. In fact, according to political theorists Todd Pittinsky and Barbara Kellerman, Xi’s lust for power is insatiable. Clearly, if there is anybody who can take out-of-the-box, historic decisions, it is Xi.
China can never hope to conquer or eliminate India — as the Ukraine war has proved. As analysed by Bertil Lintner in The End of the Chinese Century, China is “entering an era of political uncertainty”. This is not the time for it to flex muscles and display superiority, but to collaborate for a win-win on both sides. A total solution with India will not be easy. However, it will be momentous. It will make the Chinese people look up to Xi as a greater statesman than even Mao or Deng. His legacy will not be restricted to China alone; it will be a legacy of peace for Asia and the world.
To do this, Xi must traverse beyond the discreet incrementalism of diplomacy or the cautionary strategies of the military. He must take a giant leap forward and offer to India a holistic package — so complete in all respects that India will not refuse it. If indeed he succeeds in such an endeavour, this will be the most epochal event and achievement in the modern history of the world.
Raghav Chandra is a former civil servant and secretary to Government of India.The views expressed are personal
