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Without Russia, Ukraine peace meet has limited significance

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Without Russia, Ukraine peace meet has limited significanceAmong the countries that did not endorse the demands were India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the UAE, Thailand and Indonesia.

Going by numbers alone, it would seem that the Ukraine peace summit held in Switzerland over the weekend made significant headway. Of the 90 countries that attended the summit, 82 backed the communique that called for the safety of all nuclear installations — including the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which has been at the centre of fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces. It also asked for the free flow of Ukrainian agricultural products and the return of prisoners of war and displaced Ukrainians, especially children. However, despite a majority backing the communique, the summit suffered from a glaring absence and some notable abstentions.

Among the countries that did not endorse the demands were India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the UAE, Thailand and Indonesia. They represent important regional powers and significant players in the Global South. Many, like India, have an ongoing and important engagement with Russia. Significantly, the G7 summit held just before the Switzerland meet took the severe step of committing to a $50 billion loan for Ukraine, secured via interest on Russia’s frozen assets in the West. New Delhi’s rationale for the abstention — echoed by others — is that peace in Ukraine requires “all stakeholders and a sincere and practical engagement between the two parties to the conflict”. Without Russia’s presence, then, the peace conference may not have had a significant impact. On the other hand, the delicate balancing act that India has thus far managed between maintaining ties with Moscow even as it deepens its engagement with the West, may become harder to sustain if and when the conflict deepens and intensifies.

The fact remains that Russia’s entrenched position and its violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity cannot be addressed without a meaningful dialogue and compromise. Vladimir Putin’s current rigidity is bolstered by the fact that the West is not completely united on how to deal with the Ukraine conflict and that Russia’s economy has not suffered as much as was initially believed. The longer the conflict drags on, the greater the chances of the differences within Europe, between Europe and the US and within America becoming sharper. Another Donald Trump presidency — and the rise of the far right in European powers like France, for example — could alter the geopolitical picture. In fact, in such a scenario, all major and middle powers, including India, might recalibrate their position. For now, given these uncertainties, it seems that the peace summit may not be as consequential as it was expected to be.

© The Indian Express Pvt Ltd

First uploaded on: 19-06-2024 at 08:22 IST

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