What will happen to Bashar al-Assad, who ruled Syria with an iron fist for nearly a quarter of a century? (AP)
Dec 8, 2024 12:01 IST First published on: Dec 8, 2024 at 12:00 IST
As the rebel forces are closing in on Damascus, the personal and political fate of another Arab leader is being sealed. With the fall of Aleppo, the second largest city, the future of President Bashar al-Assad is increasingly uncertain, and reports indicate that the rebel forces have entered Damascus in the late hours of Saturday. Indeed, his ancestral hometown, Qardaha in the Latakia Province in the northwest — where his father Hafez and brother Basil were buried in the family mausoleum — is already under the control of the rebel forces. What will happen to Bashar al-Assad, who ruled Syria with an iron fist for nearly a quarter of a century?
Assad’s ability to survive had faced a severe challenge following the outbreak of popular protests in the southern city of Daraa, closer to the Jordanian border, on March 6, 2011. The Syrian leader survived the Arab Spring for over a decade, partly due to the commitment and loyalty of the Assad-Army-Alawite triumvirate, and they swam together and survived. When this proved insufficient, Assad sought military help from Iran, Russia and Hezbollah. The decade-long active Russian intervention, which began in September 2015, shored up the beleaguered Assad regime and also prevented the international community, especially the United Nations, from actively intervening to end the civil war. For their part, Iranian and Hezbollah fighters helped the government forces recover and restrain rebel gains.
However, some Arab countries criticised him for not “listening” to the voices of Syrians and prioritising personal survival over Syria. The Assad regime persisted, forcing the Arab League to revoke its November 2011 decision to expel Syria and readmit it in May 2023, signaling the Syrian return to the Arab fold. Saudi Arabia hosted Syrian officials, and the UAE even hosted President Assad. The restoration of Iran-Saudi Arabia relations — mediated by China in March 2023 — partly improved the situation. Events of the past few days have radically altered the situation.
The unfolding Syrian drama comes against the backdrop of a radically changed Middle Eastern order following the October 7, 2023, terror attacks by Hamas. One, despite the huge civilian casualties and hardships, Israel’s military strategy brought some tangible and radical shifts: Considerable destruction and downgrading of the terror infrastructure of Hamas and Hezbollah and the elimination of key figures of the militant groups, including Ismail Haniyeh, Hassan Nasrallah and Yahya Sinwar. While these measures might not have eliminated the threats, Hamas and Hezbollah are considerably damaged. Two, the weakening of the Hezbollah and the unpopularity of its parallel foreign policy at the behest of Iran forced the Shia militant group to accept a temporary ceasefire with Israel; more importantly, it called for the pullback of Hezbollah militants beyond the Litani River or about 30 km north of the Israel-Lebanon border. Indeed, the involvement of Hezbollah in the Syrian civil war was unpopular both inside Syria and Lebanon, and the latter ended up hosting over 1.5 million Syrian refugees, who account for nearly 25 per cent of the Lebanese population. In their view, by rallying around the Assad regime, Hezbollah has contributed to the influx of Syrian refugees. The discontent over the Syrian civil war, some believe, contributed to the intelligence leaks leading to the assassination of Nasrallah.
Three, the Islamic Republic of Iran, which leads the anti-Israeli forces in the Middle East under the banner of the Axis of Resistance, is internally weakened. Dispelling regional fears, it chose not to respond to the October 26 Israeli strike believed to have been carried out by 100 fighter jets against 20 Iranian targets. Asking its proxies to pursue resistance while maintaining strategic silence signals the weakness of the Iranian strategy. President Masoud Pezeshkian represents the pragmatic wing that resists a more robust strategy pursued by the hardliners in Tehran.
There are initial signs that the forces of Iranian Revolutionary Guards are already pulling out of Syria. Moreover, preoccupied with Ukraine, the Russian ability to shore up additional support for Assad is also limited.
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As the Assad regime is collapsing, two things are certain. One, Syria, as we have known it geographically since the end of World War II, is no longer possible. Two, Bashar Assad destroyed the lasting legacy of his father: Political stability. Hafez lost the Golan Heights to Israel in 1967, and now, Bashar is losing the whole country to the rebels. Will Syria and the wider Middle East be better off without Assad? There are no easy answers but most probably not.
The writer teaches contemporary Middle East at Jawaharlal Nehru University
