NEW DELHI: Will Jairam Mahto, popularly known as Jairam Tiger Mahto, play the spoilsport for mainstream political parties in Jharkhand? Jairam, who has made a mark as a Kurmi leader, made an impressive show in Lok Sabha elections earlier this year polling nearly 3.5 lakh votes as an Independent in Giridih Lok Sabha seat.
Jairam shot to limelight in the last two years with his campaign for prominence to local Jharkhandi language, under the banner of Jharkhandi Bhasha-Khatiyan Sangharsh Samiti. The young leader led protests in the state demanding use of only local language and also jobs only for people of Jharkhand in the state. He has considerable following among the youth of the Mahto community.
Jairam launched his political party – Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JLKM) – ahead of the assembly elections and has put up candidates on several seats. He himself is contesting from two seats – Dumri and Bermo. What makes Jairam politically significant is the fact that he hails from the Kurmi or the Mahto community, which comprises 22% of the total state’s population. This is the second largest chunk after the tribals and has traditionally voted on strong caste lines.
Jairam’s rise in Jharkhand’s political landscape could challenge the dominance of Sudesh Mahto, chief of the All Jharkhand Students Union, who is a junior ally of the BJP and has helped the party consolidate the Mahto vote in favour of NDA. In the 2019 assembly elections, AJSU and BJP could not come to an agreement over seat sharing and contested separately. Both the parties fared poorly and NDA lost power after its 5-year rule. This time around AJSU is back in the NDA fold and the coalition is confident of returning to power.
The exit polls have predicted a close contest in Jharkhand. The poll of polls projects a hung assembly in the state with the BJP-led NDA and the JMM-led INDIA bloc involved in a neck and neck race. While most of the pollsters have predicted advantage to the BJP in a close contest, one pollster has projected that JMM-led INDIA bloc will score a clear and decisive victory.
Jharkhand Exit Poll Results
| Exit poll agency | NDA | INDIA | Others |
| P-Marq | 31-40 | 37-47 | 1-6 |
| Matrize | 42-47 | 25-30 | 1-4 |
| People’s Pulse | 42-48 | 16-23 | 8-14 |
| Chankya Strategies | 45-50 | 35-38 | 3-5 |
| Times Now-JVC | 40-44 | 30-40 | 0-1 |
| Axis My India | 25 | 53 | 3 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 37-40 | 36-39 | 0-2 |
| Poll of Polls | 40 | 38 | 3 |
The caste-wise vote share predicted by Axis My India, which projects huge INDIA bloc win, throws an interesting insight. The pollster predicts that 60% of the Mahatos in the state will back Jairam Mahto’s JLKM and just 24% will vote for NDA. The INDIA bloc is projected to get only 12% of the community vote. Clearly, if this prediction holds true, both the mainstream coalitions will take a hit due to the presence of Jairam Mahto in the political fray. However, who suffers more we will know on November 23 when the votes are counted.
