Nov 01, 2024 09:37 PM IST
Prabowo has shown that he will be a hands-on foreign and strategic policy president, unlike Joko Widodo, who was more interested in domestic politics
General Prabowo Subianto becoming the president of Indonesia after five years as the defence minister is expected to bring in a change in how the country frames and implements its foreign and defence policies. Among his many visits abroad, the ones to Russia and China have drawn the most attention. On the crises in Ukraine and West Asia, his criticism of the West for its double standards and strong sympathy with the people of Gaza certainly underlined how Indonesia sees the conflicts.
Prabowo has shown that he will be a hands-on foreign and strategic policy president, unlike Joko Widodo, who was a small-town politician more interested in domestic politics. He did focus on continuity by picking many ministers from the Widodo cabinet. But, at the same time, the foreign minister was not among them. The nomination of the youthful Sugiono as the foreign minister signals that the president would dominate Indonesian foreign and strategic policy.
It is likely that he would see the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in Peru and G20 summit in Brazil as significant opportunities to showcase his foreign policy direction. Among the P5, Prabowo has met the leadership of all except the United States and the United Kingdom. Among Quad members, he has already visited Japan and Australia. A meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi is due, apart from one with the US leadership.
Certain aspects of Indonesian foreign policy that Prabowo won’t change are its commitment to Palestine and aversion to engaging with Israel, rallying members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), and actively participating in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and the Non-Aligned Movement.
He has never been fond of China, and even as defence minister, wanted diversification away from the superpower on defence procurement. However, he is unlikely to disrupt Widodo’s policy of economic engagement with China, particularly on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), to serve the faltering Indonesian economy. That said, attempts to diversify economic partnerships will also be mounted, given China remains the predominant partner with Asean, something Prabowo cannot change. He is unlikely to rock the boat on the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea, hoping that China would not provoke Indonesia in the Natuna sea though the Indonesian navy now better challenges Chinese intrusions.
Under Prabowo, Indonesia will definitely seek a wider acceptance and role for itself. One of these is an association with Brics. Indonesia would have been welcomed into Brics when it was expanded in 2023, but Widodo baulked, pleading a need for an Asean consultation. Meanwhile, other Asean countries went ahead and applied without any such consensus. As soon as Prabowo’s role became clear, Indonesia successfully obtained Brics partnership at Kazan in October.
At the same time, Indonesia is a candidate for membership of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in its quest for middle-power status. That requires the support of the West, with whom Indonesia’s emerging policy is not in sync. However, the OECD will also be interested in weaning Indonesia away from China.
The big question is: Will Prabowo revive the Bandung spirit? The coming year marks the 70th anniversary of the Bandung Afro-Asian conference. Indonesia may look at engaging India, South Africa and others to uphold its Global South credentials, which have been somewhat muted of late.
Gurjit Singh is a former Indian ambassador to the African Union and is honorary professor, IIT Indore. The views are personal
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