Why New Delhi and Malé decided to bury the hatchet

Since the Maldives’ democratic transition in 2008, its major parties have had a partisan relationship with India. The Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), in office between 2008 and 2012, embraced an India First policy and enhanced multi-sectoral cooperation with the country. But, its successor, Abdulla Yameen’s Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), fostered close ties with China. Yameen’s decision to join China’s Belt Road Initiative (BRI), borrow extensively from Beijing, and deepen security cooperation with it triggered concerns in New Delhi. India’s criticism of Yameen’s crackdown on the Opposition throughout his tenure marked another rift in the relationship, with the president intensifying his anti-India policies in his last months in power.

This anti-India rhetoric exacerbated further when Yameen was democratically ousted from power and became the leader of the opposition party. He, his second party – the People’s National Congress (PNC), and PPM launched an India Out campaign to politicize the Ibrahim Solih (of MDP) government’s increasing defense, development, and economic cooperation with India. They rekindled nationalist sentiments by accusing the MDP and India of compromising the country’s sovereignty. Tapping on this campaign and voter base, Mohamed Muizzu (of PNC) won the 2023 elections, and started pushing for diversifying relations from India and embracing closer ties with China.

However, this time, New Delhi was more open to engaging with the Muizzu government, given China’s growing presence in the region. Following Muizzu’s victory, India explored ways to work with the new government despite the former doubling down on relations with China. India showed diplomatic patience. On par with the new government’s needs and interests, it offered aid, increased export quotas, and replaced military personnel with technical experts. It also continued disbursing loans for development projects and rolled over two treasury bills worth $100 million by a year. During Muizzu’s recent visit, India offered a currency swap facility worth over $750 million.

Economic distress, India’s influence and signalling, and underwhelming support from partners like China compelled Muizzu to recalibrate relations with India. High-level visits commenced. In fact, during Muizzu’s recent visit, both countries agreed to further cooperation with a Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership vision document. The objective is to enhance collaboration on development, trade and economy, digital and financial capacity, energy, health, people-to-people relations, and security. These initiatives could pave the way for robust cooperation and nurture a non-partisan relationship.

There is also growing political trust and commitment. In fact, the lack of politicization of S Jaishankar’s meeting with the opposition – the MDP – during his official visit indicates growing maturity and trust by the PPM-PNC; something that was absent during Yameen’s time. Furthermore, during his recent visit, Muizzu met the BJP president – JP Nadda to enhance party-to-party relations and deepen partnership and mutual understanding. The vision document also emphasizes intensifying political and leadership exchanges at various levels and signing a MoU to institutionalize cooperation between the two parliaments.

However, the case of former Maldivian president, Yameen best demonstrates the complexities involved in overcoming this challenge. India, despite its unhappiness over domestic developments and crackdown, protected the Maldives from international pressure and criticism. Noting this, President Yameen hinted at reconciliation by visiting India in 2016. He thanked the country and its leadership for the support, and signed six agreements, including a defense pact that enhanced defense cooperation with India. However, just two years later, he accused the same partner of impeding on the country’s sovereignty and criticized the same aspects of defense cooperation he had advocated during his presidency.

So is the nature of Maldivian politics. Domestic politics, nationalism, and China will challenge the possibility of writing a new chapter in India-Maldives relations. Today, Muizzu’s attempts at reconciliation have come full circle, especially after his party and alliance’s seven long years of anti-India campaign. Yet, the country’s politics is deeply polarized and continues to witness fragmentation and factionalism – making India vulnerable to politicization and nationalism. Furthermore, the PPM-PNC’s close relations with China, Chinese investments, and increasing presence will also limit the possibilities of this non-partisan relationship.

Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy is associate fellow, neighbourhood studies, Observer ResearchFoundation. The views expressed are personal

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