If Uttar Pradesh, which single-handedly marred the BJP’s chances of a third term on its own, was a sweet electoral cake for the INDIA bloc, Maharashtra was its icing. While the changing currents of UP’s political waters were barely visible to most, it was hard to miss the signs of the BJP’s near rout in Maharashtra. That said, the outcome in Maharashtra underscores three important points.
One, the BJP’s remarkable ability to score self-goals; two, its exceptional ineptitude in understanding Sharad Pawar’s skill in bringing all those who matter together for political gains, and three, Uddhav Thackery rising to the challenge and displaying an as yet unseen elasticity in political manoeuvring.
Like in UP, the BJP’s central leadership had taken complete charge of the election machinery – from candidate selection to campaigning – in Maharashtra. And like in UP, it was blind to ground realities. Not only was it oblivious to dissenting notes within its own ranks, it also oversimplified the effects of inducting Ajit Pawar and his ilk. The BJP’s existence in Maharashtra largely depends on its consistent anti-Pawarism. This began in 1995 when the saffron combine defeated Sharad Pawar, then a Congressman, to form the first BJP-Shiv Sena government in the state.
The BJP has historically deployed every possible tool — from Anna Hazare to G R Khairnar, a former municipal official and self-styled anti-corruption crusader — to undermine, if not beat, Sharad Pawar. Two years ago, when it absorbed Ajit Pawar, the BJP tried to defy its own history. The current Parliament election outcome is proof of how the move backfired.
To beat Sharad Pawar at his own game, the BJP should have capped its bravado in taking on political fights and looked at what he does behind the scenes. This election, when the BJP propped up his high-profile nephew, Ajit, Pawar Sr silently worked to save his fief in Baramati. Through social engineering, he brought his political rivals on board, not letting his ego come in the way. In Marathi this is called Berajache Rajkaran (politics of adding in, or inclusion) — a term he borrowed from his mentor, the late Yashwantrao Chavan.
This has helped Pawar never burn bridges, even with rivals. Ajit Pawar and the BJP ignored this, only to realise how all those believed to be Ajit supporters silently worked for Pawar Sr’s daughter, Supriya Sule. Sharad Pawar lives politics. The octogenarian worked so tirelessly in this election that BJP could win only two seats of the 12 in what was once its bastion, Vidarbha, and it has no seats in Marathwada.
In the outgoing Parliament, the BJP and then-unified Shiv Sena had 42 of 48 MPs from Maharashtra. The BJP’s strength was 23 from the 25 seats it contested while its the Shiv Sena had won 18 of 23 in 2019. On the other hand, the Congress could muster victory in just one seat though it had contested as many as 24 in 2019, while its partner Sharad Pawar’s NCP managed to win four of 20. The 2024 election offers a completely different scenario. The BJP has come down to an awful low of nine and though humiliated as rudderless, directionless and headless, the Congress has increased its tally to 13 from just one in 2019. Pawar’s strike rate, though, is most impressive.
His outfit, the NCP, contested 10 seats of which it won as many as seven and missed one by a whisker. Equally impressive is the Grand Old Party that had entered into the contest in 17 constituencies of which it won 13. Notwithstanding the BJP and the NDA’s seemingly unassailable hold over the state, the Opposition this time successfully halted the BJP’s juggernaut and pushed it back into a corner.
The emerging political landscape looks more attractive considering the ensuing state assembly elections, slated in October. Having won 30 seats out of 48, the trinity of Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP now has a strong foothold in 180 state assembly segments of the total 288.
One doesn’t have to be a political pundit to sense which way the Maharashtra assembly may go three months down the line. In recent Parliament elections, the Opposition’s success was due to its strategy to make the BJP fight Maharashtra on its terms and make it a localised election. On the other hand, the BJP kept pushing its “Modi-versus-who” narrative though it found little resonance.
The combined strength of Uddhav Thackeray-Sharad Pawar coupled with the Congress this time successfully thwarted the BJP’s attempt to set the narrative. If viewed in the backdrop of PM Modi’s 20 election meetings, an equal number of pre-election visits and roadshows, the NDA’s failure is a stark reminder of the perils of managing states and state leaders’ aspirations by remote control. Not known for accepting its mistakes, the BJP’s central leadership may need to display its nimble-footedness in taking corrective steps. Else, come October, it may be in for another shocker.
The writer is editor, Loksatta
