The Srinagar constituency comprises many of the known badlands of Budgam, Pulwama and Shopian where radical influence prevented electoral participation. (File photo)
If you stand back and view the contrasts emerging from the post-election scenario in Pakistan and the ongoing electoral exercise in India, it proves helpful in drawing conclusions. More so if you leave aside everything else and just focus on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) where the first of the five phases of the general election ended a few days ago. The 38 per cent turnout of the Srinagar electorate was a definite surge from the abysmal 14.4 per cent in 2019. In 1996, it was 41 per cent, pointing to the downward spiral of terrorist and separatist violence after the initial spurt in 1989-90; in fact, the graph of foreign terrorists from Afghanistan had reached a low that year before rising sharply because of the presence of terrorists, mainly from Pakistan.
The Srinagar constituency comprises many of the known badlands of Budgam, Pulwama and Shopian where radical influence prevented electoral participation. From grenade blasts to the kidnapping of political workers, all kinds of deterrence were used to stop people from voting. This was particularly true for the parliamentary polls. In the case of assembly elections, panchayat and municipal polls, the reluctance to vote was always much lower, given its association with local issues and development. From 2008 onwards, however, it was in these very areas that stone-throwing became a popular pastime. Separatist sentiments brought hordes onto the streets to express their pushback against India. There is a sea change now, with tourism, the inflow of investment funds, rising youth aspirations and not even a single call for a “bandh”. In the five years since the amendment to Article 370, a whole new chapter has begun in J&K.
Can it be sustained?
Hopefully, the Srinagar narrative will play out in other constituencies, too. With Uri, Tangdhar, Machil and other areas which have traditionally been pro-India and returned figures of 70 per cent and more turnout in the past, Kashmir may well have an average 50 per cent voter turnout for the first time in years. There has been no threat of violence or intimidation either. With Jammu expectedly bringing in good figures, democracy would be the winner, cementing a process begun long ago but given shape, substance, leadership and polish from August 5, 2019, onwards.
Not everyone will agree with the deductions that good voting figures signal support for India. However, by not fielding its candidates in the Valley constituencies, the BJP, in many ways, has also signalled its willingness to work with some or all of the local parties, expressing a level of trust in them. The real test will, of course, be the assembly polls which could take place before the end of September. That said, I can hardly recall an incident-free parliamentary election in the Valley before this.
Poll time was one occasion when certain elements used to have a field day, targeting booths and people. The Army would invariably be chasing terrorists in south Kashmir. All these did not occur this time as the people exercised their franchise. That is the element of change, although one interpretation continues to harp on the notion that a large turnout is actually a pushback — it signifies a vote against abrogation. But this is not in keeping with local strategies exercised in the past.
There is change also occurring just across the LoC, in PoK. Economic stress can bring out the worst in a nation and Pakistan may consider itself fortunate that its weak civil society has, thus far, neither questioned the obviously rigged polls that led to the setting up of a government of convenience for the Pakistan Army, nor come out on the streets to protest the mismanagement of the national economy.
Protests in PoK that have broken out a few days ago, however, indicate a spark. As the past has shown, all “spring movements” invariably commence with a spark — recall the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi in December 2010 which triggered Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution. In PoK, the exorbitant electricity bills for a region which provides much of it to the national grid, and the skyrocketing price of wheat flour have hit the common man like never before. In a region where there are many families divided by the border, modern-day social media and communication lead to frequent information exchange. The stark difference in the quality of lives, the degree of freedom symbolised by the free and fair electoral exercise underway in J&K, opportunities due to rising figures of tourism, investments, and a quiet “feel good” factor that the people of J&K enjoy, have the potential of creating a storm in PoK, due to inevitable comparisons. The Pakistan government’s relationship with PoK has always been uneasy and discriminatory. A temporary reprieve may have been achieved with some fire-fighting measures by the current government but it does not take long for a subjugated populace to erupt once it realises that a highly negative future looms for the people. The emotions are even stronger if a sunshine situation exists among the same people, separated artificially.
It may be unwise to speak of the obvious at this juncture. However, most pragmatists in India who know J&K well, have always expressed the belief that the dream of integrating J&K and PoK would eventually happen through the socio-economic route when the people of PoK themselves demand it. For the last few years, many luminaries in India have expressed a sentiment to see an integrated J&K, which includes PoK. Some years ago, I wrote that this would eventually happen but a peaceful re-integration based on the strength of India’s democratic and developmental approach would obviously be the best option. Can the current electoral exercise and the assembly elections thereafter be the harbinger of the “PoK Spring”?
The writer is a former corps commander of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps
