What state elections say about Indian democracy

The member of the ruling dispensation asserted that his coalition would return to power, insisting that he was convinced that Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi possesses a siddhi (magic wand) that helps him wriggle out of the tightest of situations. This election will be another testimony to that “magic”.

The opposition leader, on the other hand, threw up his hands in exasperation and said: “I have given up election forecasts after the Haryana results. I don’t know what ‘secret sauce’ the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) uses to cast a spell on the electorate in the last few days of the campaign and all our calculations go for a toss.” Incidentally, he had returned from Mumbai the same day after attending a marathon election campaign review. Pay attention to the words of the two veterans — siddhi and secret sauce. What does it mean?

The member of the ruling coalition wasn’t talking about PM Modi’s special spiritual powers, instead, he was referring to his brilliant political skills and uncanny ability to read people’s minds. That’s the reason the BJP workers believe even if the party’s seats diminish in any election, it will more than make up in the next.

This belief not only fills them with confidence but inspires them to soldier on as a tight-knit unit. The election results in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh have proved that the ghosts of setbacks in the general election have been laid to rest. The BJP suffered an electoral humiliation in both the states just a few months ago.

The Opposition leader’s statement betrays the fact that the Congress-led INDIA bloc is facing a crisis of confidence to secure an electoral victory.

The Maharashtra victory wasn’t scripted easily. The task was tough and the challenges were many. Ever since Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar severed the umbilical cords from their parent organisations to chart their own course, experts thought the public would punish these villains for their betrayal. Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar tried to milk the element of sympathy but failed miserably. The reason was the Mahayuti government was able to successfully stall the Maratha consolidation which led to their poor showing in the general election.

Similarly, Ajit Pawar, was encouraged to win over the Muslim votes. This proved to be the death knell for Maha Vikas Agadhi (MVA). The Ladki Bahin scheme introduced four months before the assembly elections proved to be the game-changer as it hit the right chord with women voters.

The women are continually increasing their electoral clout with each passing election. In Jharkhand, they threw their weight behind Hemant Soren. Even Soren made inroads in half of the electorate with the Maiya Samman (mother’s pride) scheme.

These elections have made it clear that sympathy and legacy aren’t enough to ensure victory. You need to work on the ground.

In Maharashtra, the BJP didn’t make any mistakes. The tricky task of ticket distribution and coalition partner management was handled with care and a lot of wisdom under the leadership of Union home minister Amit Shah. And the results speak for themselves. The BJP with a strike rate of 88.6%, Shinde’s Shiv Sena with 71.3%, and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party’s 69.5% have all contributed to the landslide victory.

Now that the results are out, the names of Shinde, Devendra Fadnavis, and Ajit Pawar may pop up as possible chief minister (CM) candidates. During the election campaign, they desisted from making any loose comments. On the contrary, the MVA leaders were all over the place making contradictory statements.

So, why did the BJP juggernaut fail in Jharkhand?

There are many reasons. Unlike in Maharashtra, there weren’t heavy-weight leaders in the NDA in Jharkhand. In the INDIA bloc, there was no one to challenge Hemant Soren’s stature. So, there was no confusion in the rank and file as well as among the voters. His arrest, a few months before elections, subsumed anti-incumbency. The BJP did attempt a Maharashtra-like defection but Champai Soren couldn’t repeat the feats of Eknath Shinde or Ajit Pawar.

Another trend that became visible in these elections is the Congress Party is steadily losing its ability to win in the Hindi heartland on its own. It can help Soren, Tejaswi Yadav, or Akhilesh Yadav win but in the bargain, it’s losing its vote base.

Even after the setback in Jharkhand, it is clear that the BJP will prepare for the coming elections with renewed gusto. Another benefit will be that the NDA partners will work with the PM with greater deference. It will help PM Modi expedite his agenda and schemes.

We can also hazard a guess as to what will happen to Eknath Shinde. He has held his own against Uddhav Thackeray, but he still has to emerge as Balasaheb Thackeray’s natural heir. If he’s unable to retain the CM’s post, he may have to face new challenges in the future.

As far as the Opposition is concerned, it can brush off the drubbing, insisting that it has won two out of four states that have held assembly elections since June.

Priyanka Gandhi has won her election from Wayanad. Will she be able to provide a fresh lease of life in the Congress along with her brother Rahul Gandhi? It’s clear the Opposition has received a big jolt, yet they have enough room to rest and recuperate.

This is the beauty of Indian democracy. There’s always space for everyone.

Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. The views expressed are personal