The exit polls for the Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) have forecast a lead for the NC-Congress combine, at the same time predicting that PDP could play a critical role in government formation.
But going by latest trends, one needs to take exit poll findings with a pinch of salt. In recent times, more exit polls have flopped than succeeded in predicting electoral outcomes.
Almost a decade after the previous elections, Jammu and Kashmir voted again between September 18 and October 1, 2024. The elections were a pivotal moment for national and regional political players. For years, the political landscape in J&K has been shaped by the powerful regional dynasties of the Abdullahs and the Muftis, with national parties like the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress also vying for influence.
As J&K prepares for a new government for the first time post-reorganisation, poll watchers are closely analysing what the results could mean for key figures like Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, NC’s Omar Abdullah and PDP’s Iltija Mufti.
Impact on PM Modi, BJP
For Prime Minister Modi, the J&K elections represent both a challenge and an opportunity. The abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 by the BJP government was a watershed moment that altered the state’s special status and split it into two Union Territories. This move has been a major talking point for the BJP, which has portrayed it as a step toward national integration and security.
The election results will be a test of whether the people of J&K buy into BJP’s narrative of development and security, or if local issues overshadow national rhetoric.
A strong performance by the BJP would validate Modi’s strategy and bolster his image as a leader who delivers on promises.
On the other hand, a poor result could give fuel to critics, both domestically and internationally, who argue that the move has not benefited the people of J&K as promised.
Rahul Gandhi and Congress’ position
For Congress, and specifically for Rahul Gandhi, the elections will serve as a key indicator of the party’s ability to regain lost ground. Congress has traditionally had a foothold in J&K but has lost its presence over the years.
Gandhi has been vocal against the abrogation of Article 370, aligning with local sentiments that were wary of the central government’s move.
A good result for the Congress could help Rahul Gandhi present a case for his leadership at the national level, especially ahead of the general elections. Conversely, a lackluster performance might raise questions within his party regarding his ability to rejuvenate Congress in key regions. For Congress, this election is not just about gaining seats but about retaining relevance in the politically sensitive region of J&K.
The Abdullahs and the National Conference (NC)
For the Abdullah family, which heads the National Conference (NC), the J&K elections will test their regional influence. The party, led by Farooq Abdullah and his son Omar Abdullah, has been a dominant player in J&K politics for decades.
They have opposed the BJP’s stance on Article 370 and have called for the restoration of J&K’s statehood.
It will also be interesting to see how well the Congress-NC alliance has been able to convince people.
If NC manages to perform well, it will affirm the Abdullahs’ position as key stakeholders in J&K’s political landscape. Farooq Abdullah has been vocal about forming a united front among regional parties to counter the BJP, and a strong result would lend weight to these efforts.
Jr. Abdullah might also be looking for the chief ministerial position, this time around.
However, a weak showing could indicate a shift in public sentiment away from traditional power structures.
The Mufti Family and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP)
Mehbooba Mufti and her People’s Democratic Party (PDP) face a similar test. This year also marks Mehbooba’s daughter Iltija Mufti’s debut, who is leading the family from their stronghold Bijbehara seat in South Kashmir.
Once a partner of the BJP in a coalition government, the PDP has since distanced itself from the national party and criticized the abrogation of Article 370. The party’s popularity has waned since the dissolution of the coalition, and this election will determine whether the Mufti family can recover its lost influence.
For Mehbooba Mufti, the election results will be crucial in deciding the future of the PDP. A positive outcome would reinstate the family as a significant political power in the region, while a poor showing could signal the end of the PDP’s dominance in J&K.
The J&K elections are more than just a regional political event; they have the potential to reshape the political fortunes of both national and regional players.
