Donald Trump displayed a masterly ability to weave narratives based on electoral jumlas for the 2024 US presidential campaign. His primary focus was on illegal immigration. But he also emphasised how America was being ripped off by foreign countries, and how his forceful personality could be an asset in preventing foreign leaders from taking kinetic action against states aligned with the US or those in which the US had any interest.
These narratives enabled him to decisively win the election. But jumlas are really meant to sway the electorate. Their implementation is not considered when they are asserted. As US voters and the media may not be as forgetful or forgiving as in some other countries, Trump has to demonstrate that he will fulfil his campaign pledges — beginning with the deportation of illegal immigrants. Hence, he is filling senior positions in his administration quickly — he announced Tom Homan’s appointment as the “Border Czar” immediately after he made Susie Wiles his Chief of Staff. Homan’s remit will be to “police” and “control” all land, maritime and air borders. He will also be in charge of “all deportation of illegal aliens back to their country of origin”.
The fact that this formulation does not use the word “all” before the term “illegal aliens” but does so before the word “deportation” is indicative that a weakening of the jumla has begun. Thus, deportation programmes will be announced with “sound and fury” but Homan and other members of Trump’s team are aware deportations will be messy and incomplete affairs. They will raise practical problems, some of which are unsurmountable.
Under current estimates, there are around 11 million illegal immigrants, constituting 3.3 per cent of a total US population of 335 million. This is not a monolithic group. Many of them have been in the US for years and are parents of children born in the US; the children are potentially legal citizens. Thus, there are families where some members are illegal immigrants but others are legal residents. Besides, illegal immigrants are an integral part of the ecosystem of some segments of the US economy. Their forcible removal will cause great turbulence in these economic areas.
Of the total number of immigrants, Mexicans at around 4 million form the largest group. Estimates indicate that there are more than 7 lakh illegal Indian immigrants. The Trump people will not give special treatment to Indian illegal immigrants. It is not known if the Modi government is taking this matter seriously though there will naturally be fear among Indian illegal immigrants because of Trump’s mercurial nature.
That Trump will move on imposing tariffs on US imports is certain for he has to show action on this front. The problem is that increased tariffs increase prices though it is difficult to assess to what extent. While US trade partners would be aware of this difficulty in Trump’s path, they would prefer not to cross swords with him. Trump too knows that the importance of the US market to foreign countries, including China, would push them to try to reach an understanding with it. The unknown element lies in the question: What would satisfy Trump? For India, the question is: Would he press — and, if so, how soon and with what intensity — for a trade deal? Certainly, the tariff increase figures mentioned by Trump in his electoral rallies would come in the category of jumlas.
The claim that had he been President, Vladimir Putin would not have attacked Ukraine or Hamas would not have done an October 7 is errant nonsense. But no one effectively challenged Trump’s claims given their absurdity. This no-contestation allowed jumlas to become electorally potent! Now, Trump wants the Ukraine conflict to end even before he comes into office on January 20 next year. The only way to do so is by freezing the conflict. That would inevitably result in Ukraine losing, even if informally, territory.
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While this may be the only realistic resolution of the Ukraine question, Europe is fearful about the impact of such a Trump move on Ukraine. As yet, though, no European leader has forcefully pointed out to the US president-elect that a weakening of US resolve on Ukraine will have implications far beyond European security. It may whet the Chinese appetite for further aggression which may not be negated by appointing tough-on-China figures to critical cabinet posts in his administration. European leaders need to point out to Trump that the anxieties of Indo-Pacific countries would be greatly enhanced by a show of weakness in Ukraine. If Trump does not understand that Russia cannot get away with its aggression in Ukraine, European leaders will have to bluntly tell him: Jumlas do not a strategy make. European diplomats in Delhi would do well to educate them on the word jumla.
Will that make Trump pause and think? Unlikely. That is shown by how he issued dire tweets against Pakistan for its duplicity in Afghanistan only to then say that they were doing nothing more than “gorilla chest thumping”. The Pakistanis, initially concerned, saw through these empty noises and ignored the tweets. Trump was compelled to accept a strategic defeat in Afghanistan.
There is one area where Trump would not put any pressure on countries — human rights. The Trump administration will go through the motions in accordance with US legislation but nothing more. That will be a relief to a large number of countries that are pursuing agendas contrary to traditional liberal values. While this would be so, his approach on the major existential crisis facing humankind — climate change — would cause great concern to all countries, including India. He is a climate sceptic. It defies logic that when extreme weather events are taking place the world over and the reasons for anthropogenic climate change are well recognised, Trump is committed to enhancing the extraction of hydrocarbons and has shown no real interest in alternate energy sources. But that is so and the fact is that without the full commitment of a US President, efforts to control climate change will be almost impossible.
So, “drill, baby, drill” was no electoral jumla!
The writer is a former diplomat
