US stocks tumble; S&P, Nasdaq close at multi-week lows

Wall Street

got a reality check after a disappointing start of the megacap earnings season fueled concern the artificial-intelligence frenzy that has powered the bull market might be overblown.
A selloff in big tech sent the S&P 500 to its worst day since December 2022, ending the best stretch without a 2% drop since the start of the global financial crisis.

Losses were more pronounced in the

Nasdaq

100, which tumbled over 3.5%. Alphabet Inc. slid 5% after sinking more resources into its drive to outmatch rivals in AI, with spending higher than analysts expected. Tesla Inc.’s profit miss and the Robotaxi delay spurred a 12% stock plunge.
“Investors are finally waking up to all that AI spend and realizing it is much more of an expense right now rather than a revenue generator,” said Peter Boockvar at The Boock Report.
Wednesday’s session was another lesson in the “concentration risk” bears see as latent in a market whose upside has owed disproportionately to a narrow cohort of massive gainers. For a fourth straight session — and the 10th time in 11 days — the performance of smaller companies exceeded larger ones, evidence investor tastes have shifted from the megacap tech names that have come to dominate benchmark indexes.

The Treasury curve steepened on bets the

Federal Reserve

is close to cutting rates. Former New York Fed President William Dudley called for lower borrowing costs — preferably at next week’s gathering. For many analysts, such a move would be worrisome as it would indicate officials rushing to avoid a recession.
The loonie fell as the Bank of Canada cut rates, focused on “downside risks.” The yen hit the highest since May amid an unwind in carry trades.

To Steve Clayton at Hargreaves Lansdown, this could be the year markets start talking about the “So-So Seven,” noting that results from Tesla and Alphabet are not enough to maintain their momentum.
“The market is not impressed with the start of earnings season for the mega tech stocks,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. “There was a lot resting on these results and we don’t think that they give clear answers to questions about the effectiveness and profit potential for AI right now.”
After driving the rally in stocks for most of 2024, big tech slammed into a wall. Traders rotated from megacaps to lagging parts of the market, spurred by bets on Fed rate cuts and concern AI still needs to pay off.
“Tech’s problem isn’t just that earnings are less than perfect, but the group is still caught up in the violent rotation trade that kicked off with the June CPI,” said Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli. “Many assumed the anti-tech rotation would be ephemeral and the fact it’s proving durable is compounding anxiety toward the group and spurring additional selling pressure.”
The drubbing in these stocks has seen some of the air come out of valuations. While that’s something that could argue in favor of dip buying, the earnings season is just getting started. Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc and Meta Platforms Inc are all due to
To Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers, the equity correction is far from over. “Yesterday we wrote that a 10% to 15% correction was in the cards this quarter, historically the worst period of the year,” Torres said. “This quarter, the valuation concerns are paired with front-loaded gains, irrational exuberance, a high bar for earnings estimates and a presidential election.”
In fact, the second-quarter US earnings season is off to a weaker start than usual.
Among S&P 500 companies that reported results, profits beat analyst estimates by the smallest margin since the end of 2022 — while sales surprises were the worst in at least two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“We are still looking for volatility to increase moving through the second half of 2024 – with the potential for a 10% to 15% correction in benchmarks like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott. “Our work does not point to secular/structural downturn at this time, but rather a pause in the reflationary expansion cycle that began a few years ago.”
Just as earnings roll in, a key technical indicator in the US stock market sat close to historic extremes — a crucial gauge that has foretold past selloffs.
Known as the “the 200-DMA” — an abbreviation of 200-day moving average — the gauge measures how the S&P 500 is performing against that longer-term measure. At one point last week, the benchmark was trading as much as 15% above it, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
While the gap has since narrowed — to 9% through Wednesday’s close — that kind of gulf above 12% still preceded declines for the index in 2011, 2018 and 2021. Although that does not necessarily mean the market is about to tank, it is a warning sign for investors concerned about lofty tech valuations and concentration risk.
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