The best thing about the American presidential debate last Thursday was that it happened with over four months to go before the elections. If held later, Joe Biden would have appeared even more feeble and Donald Trump would have been just as aggressive – with the “morals of an alley cat”, to quote the President of the United States speaking of a former president of the United States.
Americans don’t deserve this. A troubled world, still desperately dependent on American leadership despite premature declarations of its demise, doesn’t deserve this either.
Trump’s sentencing for falsifying hush money payment records is not till July 11, and a string of appeals will, inevitably, ensue. Even when the appeals are done, jail time is not usual in Manhattan for this type of crime by a first-time offender.
Biden firmly believes he is the best person to save the world from Trump. The irony is that he might be right – unless the Democrats move from Plan Biden to a specific Plan B and make the case for them. In a digital age, four months is more than enough time to produce a star.
Let’s review the Plan B options.
The presumptive candidate a heartbeat away, Vice President Kamala Harris, polls poorly. Whether it is because of plain old-fashioned misogyny laced with racism, or constant sidelining by the Biden inner-circle, or her own uninspiring track record, together with endless “cheapfake” videos – done by simply editing out context – of her laughing, a turnaround of her poor standing in this short time will be hard and she’ll be savaged by Trump and the Trumpists.
Looking past Harris is politically hazardous — it makes the Democratic party look like it doesn’t trust its own leadership while alienating voters who might be upset that a woman of colour is being sidelined. But, given the urgency, other options must be considered.
The most obvious ones are those with executive governing experience in the states. Leading the pack are Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer and California’s Gavin Newsom; both are camera-ready and quick on their feet – ideal for ramping up fast viral campaigns. Whitmer, a supporter of key issues for Democrats and centrists, such as gun control, abortion rights, LGBTQ+ rights, and — being from a state with a large Arab Muslim population — has had the chance to practise the delicate balance of reaching out to Muslims while affirming her support for Israel. Her track record is good; her decisiveness during COVID-19 lockdowns signals that she can be tough. Her Midwestern roots will appeal to many in the critical swing states, Michigan being one of them. Her biography includes a relatable “fix the damn roads” campaign, a bizarre – thwarted — plot to kidnap her and a “Big Gretch” rap song that could serve as a fine campaign anthem. Newsom, on the other hand, like all politicians, has his defenders and detractors, but could be attacked for reasons that include being out of touch or for the homelessness crisis in California’s major cities. His biography is complicated: Once married to the current fiancée of Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr, he has admitted to an extramarital affair with a friend’s wife. Whitmer, as a woman, would make a more palatable candidate, who leapfrogs over Harris. On the other hand, Newsom’s advantage is an old-fashioned one in American politics: A Y chromosome.
I wouldn’t bother with the other governors whose names are being floated, such as Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro, Kentucky’s Andy Beshear, or Illinois’ J B Pritzker. It would take too long to elevate them to the national stage, road-test them and make them Trump-proof.
Then, there are those from within the Biden cabinet. Secretary of Transportation, Pete Buttigieg, is young, articulate, and gay – a vastly different package from Biden. He was a presidential aspirant in the last election. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, is another possibility – competent, respected, a woman, and former state governor. But both have obstacles. They are from the Biden team and leapfrogging over Harris would be awkward, to say the least. Transportation and commerce secretaries have critically important jobs, and even when they do well, these are not the most exciting of records to package and sell in a few months. Most significantly, neither would help with Black voters concerned about the sidelining of Harris.
This brings us to two names from the past who share a common attribute: Both are former White House occupants. I speak, of course, of Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama. Clinton’s return might be a counterfactual fantasy of what might have been, had the 2016 election shocker not happened. But she’s past the time in her life when she has the desire or energy to jump back into politics and would face too much opposition even within the Democratic party. Michelle Obama is a name that has come up as she commands a wide following. Even Trump has mentioned her, and Republican senator Ted Cruz is convinced she will be the Biden replacement. She can defuse the resentment that many would feel over Harris’s sidelining. Besides not having any relevant experience other than residency in the White House, she has shown no interest in doing her husband’s job. While intriguing and potentially a game-changer, Obama may be a bridge too far.
But, before we get to any of these possibilities, there is another White House occupant who is critical to opening the door to any of these considerations. This is the one person who can persuade Biden to get off the stage. She helped him do so when the debate ended. Perhaps, she can do it again. With four months to go, there is plenty of time to elevate a fresh new candidate.
My pick: Michigan’s Big Gretch. She’s smart and tough. She is exactly the kind of woman that Trump has gone after in his life. It’s time such a woman goes after him.
The writer is Dean of Global Business at The Fletcher School at Tufts University
