Trump’s transactionalism the compass now for Ukraine war

Three years after the Russia-Ukraine war and the immense human and capital losses on both sides, there are flickering signs of an end — though its shape is yet unclear. The war was marked by the shifting of balance from one side to the other throughout, and it was clear that an end could only come about off the field and at the negotiating table. To that end, the US opening talks with Russia, in the normal course of things, would have been perceived as a significant positive. The US, along with Nato, backed Ukraine against Russia’s aggression, and expectations were that it would back Kyiv’s interests in negotiations with Moscow.

Now, however, prospects for peace have come against the backdrop of US president Donald Trump’s blatant transactionalism. After the American and Russian sides held talks in Saudi Arabia early last week — with Ukraine conspicuously absent — US secretary of State spoke of supporting peace in Russia, and hyphenated it with “incredible opportunities … economically” from Washington partnering Moscow. Days after, Trump called Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator and said Kyiv was responsible for the war. On Saturday, he made a U-turn, recognising Russian president Vladimir Putin as the aggressor, though tempering this by saying Ukraine (and the Joe Biden administration) “shouldn’t have let him attack”.

The breathtaking disinformation and the about-turn are carefully calculated moves aimed at being maximally extractive. US energy and other sectors clearly stand to benefit from doing business with Russia again, and Russia has been long pursuing an end to its economic and geopolitical isolation that followed its attack on Ukraine. At the same time, signs of a Russia-US reset could also force Ukraine to make deep concessions to the US, notably on its extensive mineral assets, to secure its interests as Moscow and Washington thrash out a deal. Transactionalism, rather than diplomacy or the liberal order long championed by the West, seems set to underline an end to the war.