Trump pausing all aid will devastate Ukraine in more ways than one

Between FY2022 and FY2024, the US provisioned $174.2 billion in emergency supplemental funding for Ukraine, with $110.7 billion being provided for the Department of Defence (DoD). While small contingents of the US National Guard and US military have trained Ukraine’s armed forces, many US special forces veterans have been participating “unofficially” on the battlefield. But what has added enormous effectiveness to Ukrainian military operations against Russia has been the immense support by the USIC (US intelligence community), particularly the CIA, under separate, classified budgets.

Thus, with large amounts of US-funded ammunition and weaponry already transferred to Ukraine, and the latter’s armed forces personnel having imbibed much of the operating and maintenance aspects, the military aid pause is not what will impinge on Ukrainian military operations immediately — as the shortages due to non-supply of US-origin munitions will manifest in a few days or weeks depending on the type of weaponry. Besides, Ukraine has undertaken many steps to rebuild its erstwhile military-industrial capacities as well as establish new ones under the Brave1 defence innovation ecosystem.

However, what will have an immediate — and devastating —  impact is the absence of intelligence support. The CIA had begun its build-up in Ukraine just prior to the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia, and particularly after February 2022, substantially expanded its presence and activity there. Apart from establishing over a dozen Russia-orientated bases in Ukraine, the CIA has not only purged the Ukrainian intelligence services of Russian penetration, but also trained a new generation of Ukrainian spies and covert operations operatives, helped raise special units for cyber-attacks on Russia as well as for capturing Russian equipment to develop countermeasures by combined US-Ukrainian teams.

Since 2022, the CIA has increasingly been providing sophisticated, all-source, synthesised intelligence relating to the war. These include details of imminent Russian attacks, missile strikes, drone flights etc. and have helped Ukraine in countering many Russian attacks. The intelligence related to almost every Russian military movement and deployment, and path(s) of various Russian ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) satellites, helped the Ukrainian military plan operations to maximise damage to Russian forces.

However, just two days back, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered the US Cyber Command to pause offensive cyber-operations against Russia, plausibly to further encourage Russia towards talks to end the war. While that order is limited to the Pentagon, the Trump administration has also rolled-back intelligence operations by many other intelligence agencies including the CIA. Notably, the CIA has offered to ‘buy out’ its entire workforce, and subsequently re-appoint/appoint afresh only those who align with Trump’s priorities — combating drug cartels, countering China and supporting his trade war. No other European ally has intelligence capabilities that are even near that of Washington. It’s also unlikely that the US will allow the Five Eyes to share any war-related intelligence with Ukraine without its nod. The denial of such intelligence will severely impair the operational capability of the Ukrainian armed forces at all levels — even as intelligence resources available to Russia remain intact and available.

Given the US’s history of temporary alliances, this sudden U-turn on Russia and Ukraine is not new — and holds lessons for India. In World War II, the military contribution of the USSR in Europe and China in the Indo-China region helped the Allied powers win. But thereafter, to contain Communism, the US turned on the People’s Republic of China (PRC), recognised Taiwan, and piloted the Cold War with the USSR. In 1972, it reached a rapprochement with the PRC to diminish the USSR, assisted the entry of the PRC into the United Nations, de-recognised Taiwan, and even shared critical military technologies with the PRC. Between 1979 and 1989, it recruited, indoctrinated, trained, funded and armed the “mujahideen” for the war in Afghanistan, but abandoned Afghanistan after the Soviets withdrew.

The US, in pursuit of global pre-eminence, has always acted to downsize emerging regional or global players, but invariably after building a coalition in order to minimise damage to itself. Its simultaneous targeting of Russia and the PRC has driven them closer. As they began roping other nations into an informal bloc, the US has tried to woo India away from Russia and also use it as its counterweight against China. Unsuccessful, it has now decided to wedge Russia away from China. The war has been a failure for Russia. Although it has captured about 20 per cent of Ukraine, it couldn’t re-establish a significant strategic buffer against NATO. With its vastness (largest landmass) and sparse population (14.5 crore), Russia requires a powerful military and a sound economy — but the war has weakened both. If President Vladimir Putin goes along with what Trump has espoused, Russia can not only end this debilitating war while retaining the territorial gains, but can rebuild its economy, military and foreign influence while redefining its relations with the rest of the world. What happens to Ukraine is another matter.

The writer is a retired brigadier of the Indian Army