NEW DELHI: In a few hours from now, the results of the
Lok Sabha elections
2024 will be announced. If exit polls turn out to be true, the
BJP-led NDA
will easily cross the majority mark securing around 350-400 seats. Prime Minister
Narendra Modi
, who led a high-charge election campaign, is likely to get a historic third term, equalling the record of the country’s first prime minister Jawahar Lal Nehru.
But this is not the only record the BJP hopes to achieve. As results start to come in from 8am on June 4, all eyes will be on the final seat tally of the NDA to see if it actually manages to get ‘400 paar’ (over 400 seats). The only time any party achieved this target was in the 1984 General Elections when the Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress won 414 seats (of the 541 that voted).
PM Modi’s call for ‘Abki baar 400 paar’
In 2014, when the NDA announced the name of Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate, it gave a fresh twist to its Lok Sabha election campaign. This was the beginning of the Modi-centric election campaign for the BJP. Focusing on the Gujarat development model, the BJP asked the votes to oust Congress from the Centre and came up with the slogans like ‘Ghar ghar Modi’ and ‘Abki baar Modi sarkar’.
In 2019, as PM Modi sought a second term, the BJP built up on the ‘Abhi baar’ slogan and came up with ‘Fir ek baar Modi sarkar’. The slogan, like PM Modi’s development work, resonated with the voters and the NDA registered consecutive victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections bettering its seat tally from 336 to 353.
This year, as PM Modi aimed to equal Jawahar Lal Nehru’s record for the third term, he gave the battle cry of ‘Abki baar, 400 paar’, setting the target of 400 seats for the NDA.
As he campaigned across the country, holding over 200 rallies, roadshows, and other public outreach programmes, he told the voters to turn the ‘400 paar’ into reality to make sure the Congress and opposition INDIA bloc does not succeed in its plan to put the “Babri lock” on the temple in Ayodhya or bring back Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir.
When Congress crossed ‘400 paar’
In few hours from now, we will finally get to know if the NDA will be able to achieve its touted target of 400 seats. In Indian electoral history, this ambitious target has been achieved only once, by the Congress in the 1984 Lok Sabha elections.
In the
1984 elections
, which came after Indira Gandhi’s assassination, the Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress got 414 seats of the total 541 seats. Along with the highest seat tally, Congress also got the highest ever vote share for a single party, at 48.12 per cent.
The second spot was secured by the CPI(M) which won 22 seats and 5.71 per cent of the vote share. The BJP got only 2 seats with 7.4 per cent vote share.
What the exit polls have predicted
According to exit polls conducted on Saturday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to secure a third consecutive term in office, with the BJP-led NDA projected to win a significant majority in the Lok Sabha elections. Axis My India predicts the BJP-led alliance will secure between 361 and 401 seats, while the opposition INDIA bloc is expected to win 131-166 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha. ABP-C Voter forecasts 353-383 seats for the ruling alliance and 152-182 seats for the INDIA bloc.
Chanakya’s exit poll suggests an even higher tally for the BJP and its alliance compared to the 2019 polls, predicting 335 seats for the BJP and 400 for the NDA, with a margin of 15 seats either way. The opposition alliance is projected to win 107 seats, with a possibility of its tally fluctuating by 11 seats. Times Now-ETG Research’s exit poll gives 358 seats to the NDA and 152 seats to the INDIA bloc.
Several pollsters indicate that the NDA may surpass its 2019 tally of 353 seats, with the BJP having won 303 seats in the previous election. The Congress had secured 53 seats, while its allies had won 38. The NDA is likely to open its account in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, sweep Karnataka, but may experience a decline in states such as Bihar, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Haryana. Uttar Pradesh is expected to remain a BJP stronghold, according to most pollsters.
Axis My India predicts 322-340 seats for the BJP, 60-76 seats for the Congress, and 71-90 seats for Congress allies. The P Marq poll suggests the ruling alliance will win up to 359 seats, while the opposition INDIA bloc will secure 154 seats. Matrize poll gives 353-368 seats to the NDA and 118-133 seats to the opposition. Jan Ki Baat poll projects 362-392 seats for the ruling NDA and 141-161 for the opposition alliance. India TV-CNX predicts 371-401 seats for the NDA and 109-139 seats for the opposition, while News Nation forecasts 342-378 seats for the NDA and 153-169 seats for the opposition.
