Bluesky has recently been gaining popularity among ordinary users also. (Photo: Bluesky)
Dec 2, 2024 12:07 IST First published on: Dec 2, 2024 at 12:07 IST
Ever since the US election results, there has been a noticeable exodus from Twitter (now X) to platforms like Threads and Bluesky. Around 35 million new users joined Threads in November, taking its total active users to about 275 million. For Bluesky, the total user base stands at about 22.5 million, with a rise of 500 per cent after the election results. Of course, this still pales in comparison to X’s active user base of 588 million.
While previous attempts to challenge X’s dominance have fizzled, including the one in India in the form of Koo, the current migration carries a unique momentum, driven by a perfect storm of user frustrations, technological readiness, and strategic timing by competitors. Much of the current concerns have been around the toxic and disturbing environment surrounding the US presidential elections and Elon Musk’s own politically aggressive postures. The platform’s treatment of competing viewpoints has become increasingly scrutinised. While Musk promotes X as a champion of free speech, his personal responses to critics, including temporary account restrictions and public mockery, have led many users to question the consistency of these principles.
X’s transformation under Musk’s ownership has catalysed unprecedented user discontent. The platform’s erratic policy changes, technical instabilities, and shifting content moderation approaches have eroded trust among its core user base. Journalists, academics, and creators — who formed Twitter’s influential backbone — have found themselves navigating an increasingly unpredictable landscape. The removal of legacy verification marks, changes to rate limits, and the rebranding to “X” have only accelerated the desire for alternatives.
There are a few factors that make this migration attempt more promising than previous ones. The most glaring factor is the timing. Meta’s Threads launched with Instagram’s massive user base as a foundation. Previous Twitter alternatives like Mastodon had been doomed because they lacked this advantage. While early Threads engagement dropped after its initial surge, Meta’s patient, long-term approach and gradual feature rollout suggests they’re playing the long game rather than seeking immediate dominance.
Bluesky has carved out a distinct niche. Its decentralised protocol (the AT Protocol) offers a technical foundation that could revolutionise how social networks interact. This approach appeals particularly to the tech-savvy early X adopters who value platform independence and data portability. Bluesky has recently been gaining popularity among ordinary users also.
However, technical features alone don’t guarantee success. Previous Twitter alternatives like App.net and Ello offered superior technology yet failed to achieve critical mass.
The current migration wave benefits from a crucial psychological shift where users are increasingly willing to maintain multiple social media presences rather than seeking a single replacement platform. This multi-platform approach marks a fundamental change in social media behaviour. Just as people use different messaging apps for different social circles, users are becoming comfortable with platform specialisation. Threads might excel at casual conversations and visual content, while Bluesky could become the go-to for tech discussions and digital rights advocacy. This specialisation reduces the pressure on any single platform to be a complete Twitter replacement.
However, the challenges facing this migration shouldn’t be understated. Twitter’s greatest strength remains its real-time nature and its role in breaking news and public discourse. Neither Threads nor Bluesky has fully replicated this capability. Additionally, Twitter’s vast archive of historical conversations and its integration into countless third-party services create significant switching costs for users and developers alike.
Financial sustainability presents another hurdle. X’s monetisation struggles are well-documented, and new platforms must navigate the same challenges. Threads benefits from Meta’s resources, but Bluesky’s decentralised model requires proving it can support itself while maintaining its independent ethos.
The most promising sign for this migration’s success is the change in users expectations. Unlike previous exodus attempts, which sought to replicate X exactly, users seem more accepting of different platform characteristics. This flexibility allows new platforms to innovate rather than merely imitate.
Looking ahead, the social media landscape likely won’t see a single X successor but rather a constellation of interconnected platforms serving different needs and communities. This fragmentation might actually benefit public discourse by preventing any single platform from gaining too much influence over global conversations.
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The current migration wave represents more than just users seeking new digital homes — it reflects a broader shift in how we think about social media. The era of monolithic platforms might be giving way to a more diverse, interconnected ecosystem. Whether Threads, Bluesky, or yet-unknown platforms ultimately thrive, the movement away from X’s model of centralised social media appears increasingly permanent.
This time feels different not because the alternatives are perfect, but because users’ expectations and behaviour have evolved. The question isn’t whether people will leave X entirely, but how they’ll participate in a more diverse social media landscape. In this light, the current migration might mark not just a platform shift, but a fundamental evolution in how we connect and communicate online.
The writer, a defence and cyber security analyst, is former country head of General Dynamics
