In the aftermath of the conviction of former President Donald Trump last week in a New York court in a hush-money case, his supporters are accusing the Democratic Party of weaponising the courts to undermine a popular Republican leader who secured nearly half of the ballots cast in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The Democrats, of course, have long demonised Trump as a reincarnation of the typical Third World dictator with American characteristics. Ignore for a moment the conservative contempt and liberal condescension towards the Third World in America. The multitude of cases slapped against Trump and his conviction in one of them just ahead of the November election points to the deepening structural crisis in the US system.
The court’s decision will intensify the polarisation in the American polity and test its resilience. Those who dislike Trump celebrate the first-ever conviction of a former president as a triumph of the principle that nobody in America is above the law. But Trump’s supporters see this as the blatant political targeting of a leader who promises to challenge the dominant American elites. Some in the shrinking middle recognise the importance of the law taking its course, but argue that using technical legal means to defeat Trump, who has questioned the elite consensus on a range of issues, is unwise and counterproductive. That Trump has been convicted in a case that is least political among the multitude of cases filed against him also worries some American political analysts. The charges against Trump include supporting insurrection and election interference. Focus on those issues might have lent greater credibility to the trial and conviction of Trump. The next few weeks will see a continuation of the legal drama along with the acceleration of the political calendar to choose the next president.
What about the impact of the conviction on Trump’s electoral prospects? Earlier polls have suggested that a conviction would see a small percentage of supporters stay home or vote against him. New polls might give a better indication on how much support Trump might lose and what it might mean for his standing in key battleground states where he currently enjoys a comfortable lead against President Biden. For now, though, the Republican Party is rallying around Trump. Even those who challenged him for the presidential nomination of the party are characterising the conviction as political chicanery. The US establishment that constantly questions the quality of democracy in other countries and raises questions about the credibility electoral mechanics in them should, for a change, look closely in the mirror. The growing toxicity of American politics, its complex electoral processes with its unique nature of representation and procedures relating to voting and counting, the continuous need for judicial intervention in resolving disputes over electoral results, the suppression of voting by the poor and minorities, and the power of money, all demand that the US political class should preach less and reform more.
