Pushpendra
Mar 6, 2025 12:51 IST First published on: Mar 6, 2025 at 12:33 IST
As the Bihar assembly election approaches, amidst rising political tension both within the INDIA bloc and the NDA, a few questions hover around the power corridors of Patna: What is the future of an ageing Nitish Kumar, who has been at the helm of political power in Bihar for nearly two decades? Who after him?
The chief minister of Bihar is now 74. His memory and sense of judgment seem to fail him occasionally. On several occasions, he has acted unthinkably for a person of his stature. His act of touching Prime Minister Modi’s feet, who is only a few months older than him, in public view, is both politically and socially questionable. He often loses control over his emotions and sometimes even makes strange remarks. He also appears to have exhausted his vision for a developed Bihar, which is narrowly focused on a combination of physical infrastructure, welfare schemes, the Jeevika program, and a liquor ban.
Story continues below this ad
The disquiet among his own party leaders is even more palpable. In public, they deny anything wrong with their leader. However, they know that the question of a successor cannot wait, and Kumar must act fast. The party’s successor crisis is a product of a much larger phenomenon – problems associated with “charismatic leadership”, to borrow the term coined by Max Weber. Such leaders possess the extraordinary power of charisma to win the trust of the common electorate and unify all sorts of interest groups which otherwise clash with each other. Charismatic leaders have no peers in the party. The mantle cannot be passed on simply through an intra-party election. No other leader can emerge as more equal than others.
Hence, the party usually seeks a successor from the immediate family, temporarily settling the succession question. Nitish Kumar, an ardent critic of dynastic politics, is caught in a dilemma regarding his son Nishant Kumar being potentially launched as his successor, as his bete noire Lalu Yadav did with Tejashwi. Without a unifying successor, the party may face the threat of disintegration.
Amidst these uncertainties and the natural anti-incumbency, the BJP is sensing an unprecedented opportunity. Bihar has so far denied it the privilege to form a government on its own. The recent cabinet expansion has indicated the BJP’s hold over the coalition. Though the JD (U) leaders have said that the BJP has simply filled its quota in the cabinet and nothing more should be read into it, the tension within the alliance seems to be growing. Kumar’s son has batted for his father’s name to be declared as the CM face of the NDA. The JD (U)’s apprehensions grew further with the BJP extending an olive branch to EBC communities — Kumar’s core vote bank — by offering them cabinet ranks. However, the BJP is unlikely to play a Shinde to Kumar.
most read
Story continues below this ad
For the opposition parties, post-Kumar Bihar politics may prove to be more challenging for at least three reasons. First, they must compete directly with the BJP with its growing vote share and better organisational structure. Second, Kumar has acted as a buffer so far, reigning in communal politics. “Development” continues to occupy a prominent place in Bihar’s political agenda. Third, with Kumar, they still hope to upset the coalition game as they could do twice when he changed sides. For this reason, the RJD has explicitly supported the prospect of Nishant Kumar leading the JD (U). Nishant Kumar starting with a clean slate would be more flexible in choosing sides.
However, Nitish Kumar has one clear advantage: The lack of another charismatic leader in any political party in Bihar. His approval rating may have declined recently as issues like unemployment, corruption, and crime have been affecting a significant portion of the electorate, especially the youth. However, the BJP also shares part of the blame. Additionally, the Modi government heavily relies on the support of JD (U) MPs. Kumar can leverage this to claim a respectable share of seats during negotiations. If his party can replicate its 2020 performance and none of the coalitions are able to form the government without his backing in the upcoming Assembly elections, he can still position himself as a contender for the top post.
The writer is former professor, TISS, Mumbai
