The Haryana assembly poll victory has given the BJP the much-needed boost in the aftermath of the setback in the Lok Sabha elections, especially since this win came after the single largest caste grouping (Jats) in the state largely consolidated against the BJP.
In the upcoming assembly polls in Jharkhand and Maharashtra, two dominated groupings — tribals and Marathas — are seen as siding with BJP’s opponents, which was visible in the recently-held Lok Sabha elections.
After 2014, the BJP has in several assembly elections tried to consolidate non-dominant castes along with EBCs who are artisan castes and who do not own land.
Like in Haryana, non-dominant castes like Sainis, Kumahars (potters), Khatis (carpenters) and Nais (barbers) supported the BJP and emerged as the new support base for the party in the state.
In Jharkhand and Maharashtra, the BJP has in the past tried to consolidate politically non-dominant castes which are not in large numbers individually.
This Haryana win in BJP’s will strengthen its strategy for the upcoming assembly polls in Jharkhand and Maharashtra to consolidate small-small politically less dominant caste on its side and enters poll scene by doing social engineering of these backwards with its support base among upper castes.
With Haryana’s victory BJP now also has the upper hand in terms of seat sharing with allies. In Maharashtra, Shiv Sena is trying to negotiate seat sharing based on the performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections, where the BJP won nine seats and Shiv Sena won seven seats. In the current scenario, the BJP will decide the seat sharing while others will have to accept it. Sources in the state BJP tell ET that the party will be very accommodative as it treats NDA allies equally but in Maharashtra, BJP will contest elections in all regions as it has the capacity to attract votes even for the allies.
In Jharkhand, AJSU leader Sudesh Mahto had two meetings with BJP national leadership in Delhi. Mahto wants to contest on 13 seats. However, the BJP was offering him eight seats which AJSU contested in alliance with the BJP in 2014. In 2019, AJSU contested alone on 53 seats and could win only two seats. With a victory in Haryana, the BJP will now push for AJSU to settle on a single digit number. Apart from AJSU, BJP is likely to accommodate JDU with two seats. The decision on giving one seat to LJP (Ram Vilas) has not been discussed yet.
