South Africa, India and Australia are in contention for a spot in the World Test Championship final. (AP)
WTC scenarios: South Africa’s 109-run win over Sri Lanka at Gqeberha on Monday have put them on the verge of their maiden World Test Championship (WTC) final appearance. They are now one win away from confirming their spot for next year’s title clash at Lord’s.
When the 2024/25 season began, five teams – India, South Africa, Australia, Sri Lanka and New Zealand – were in with a chance to make the WTC final. Thanks to their series defeat against England, New Zealand are now out of contention. Sri Lanka have very slim hopes of qualification. As a result, the remaining three Border-Gavaskar Trophy Tests have gained more significance as it has become more or less a knockout contest between India and Australia for the WTC final spot.
Here are the scenarios and where each of these teams stand….
South Africa
At the start of the year, when a second-string South African side travelled to New Zealand, a place in the WTC final seemed a long shot. But here they are, needing only one win from their two home Tests against Pakistan to seal a spot. It has been some turnaround for the Proteas, who had just one win from their first five Tests. Since then, they have won five on the bounce and are topping the table with a 63.33 percentage.
If they win both the Tests against Pakistan, they finish as table-toppers. If they end up losing both, there is a good chance of India and Australia setting up a repeat of their 2023 WTC final clash. It will also reignite Sri Lanka’s qualification hopes as they still have a two-match Test series coming up against Australia at home.
Remaining Tests: Two vs Pakistan at Centurion, Cape Town.
Australia
They have dropped to second spot, but the outlook looks bright for the defending champions. If they win two of their last three Tests against India, even a series loss in Sri Lanka won’t prevent them from finishing in the top two. If the Border-Gavaskar Trophy ends with a 2-2 scoreline, Australia need to win at least one Test in Sri Lanka to finish above India. If Australia lose the series to India by a 2-3 margin, both their Tests in Sri Lanka will be must-win matches.
Remaining Tests: 3 vs India at Brisbane, Melbourne & Sydney; 2 vs Sri Lanka at Galle
India
A third successive WTC final berth was very much within their reach at one stage. It still is, but it isn’t going to be easy. Having lost four of their last five Tests, India still have their destiny in their own hands. If they win two of the remaining three Tests and draw one, they can finish in the top two even if Australia wins the series against Sri Lanka with a 2-0 margin. But if India win the BGT 2-1, Australia can still overtake them by winning both the Tests in Sri Lanka.
If India lose the series in Australia, they will be out of the reckoning. In case the series ends with a 2-2 scoreline, India will need help from Sri Lanka, who need to draw both their Tests against the Aussies. In that scenario, India and Australia will be level, but the former will make it to the final on the basis of more series wins (3 to India, 2 to Australia.)
Remaining Tests: 3 vs Australia at Brisbane, Melbourne & Sydney.
Sri Lanka
Their chances are very slim as they need a lot of other results to go their way. By the time Australia come calling on their shores for the first Test starting on January 29, Sri Lanka will know if they are still in the race. If they are still in contention by then, winning both the Tests at Galle will take them to Lord’s.
Remaining Tests: 2 vs Australia at Galle
