NEW DELHI: The Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) recently published a study that analyzed the shifts in
religious demographics
across various countries from 1950 to 2015. The study, named “Share of religious minorities: A cross-country analysis,” shed light on change in demographics from 1950 to 2015.
According to the findings, India’s Hindu majority population experienced a decline of 7.81 per cent during the 65-year period.
In contrast, the Muslim community in India witnessed a significant increase of 43.15 per cent within the same timeframe.
The study aimed to provide a comprehensive understanding of how religious composition has evolved in different nations over the past several decades, offering valuable insights into this critical dimension of demographic transformation.
According to the report, the global average for the share of the majority religious denomination in 1950 was 75%. By 2015, this figure had decreased by approximately 22%, indicating a global trend towards greater religious heterogeneity. The study highlights significant regional differences. For instance, more than half of the countries with the largest demographic shifts are located in Africa, where shifts from animist majorities to other religious denominations were most common.
Countries like India and several OECD nations have also seen declines in their majority religious shares, signaling a diversification of religious demographics. In contrast, many Muslim-majority countries have seen an increase in the share of their dominant religious groups.
South Asia
The report reveals that India, like many other South Asian nations, has experienced a noticeable decrease in the share of its majority religious group. In 1950, the majority religious group in India comprised a larger share of the population compared to 2015, reflecting a trend towards greater religious diversity and pluralism. This change is attributed to various factors including demographic shifts, migration patterns, and changing socio-political landscapes.
As per the report, specifically, all the Muslim-majority countries in this study saw an increase in the share of their dominant religious groups, with the sole exception of the Maldives. In the Maldives, the majority group, Shafi’i Sunnis, experienced a decrease of 1.47 per cent.
Among the non-Muslim majority nations, the trends were mixed. Myanmar, India, and Nepal all saw a reduction in the proportion of their majority religious groups. Conversely, in Sri Lanka and Bhutan, the share of the majority denomination saw an increase. The extent of these changes varied widely across the region, with Myanmar experiencing the most significant drop of 9.84 percent in its Theravada Buddhist population, reducing from 79 per cent to 71 per cent. Bangladesh observed the most substantial increase, where the Hanafi Muslim population surged by 18.55 per cent, from 74 per cent to 88 per cent of the populace.
India: Share of Hindu population down by 7.82%
The share of the majority Hindu population decreased by 7.82 per cent from 1950 to 2015, moving from 84.68 per cent to 78.06 per cent. Concurrently, the Muslim population in India grew from 9.84 per cent in 1950 to 14.09 per cent in 2015, marking a 43.15 per cent increase in their proportion.
Smaller increments were noted among other religious groups: Christians increased from 2.24 per cent to 2.36 per cent, Sikhs from 1.24 per cent to 1.85 per cent, and Buddhists from 0.05 per cent to 0.81 per cent.
In contrast, the Jain community in India saw a decrease from 0.45 per cent in 1950 to 0.36 per cent in 2015. The Parsi population experienced a significant decline, decreasing by 85 per cent from a 0.03 per cent share in 1950 to just 0.004 per cent in 2015. These figures underscore the complex and evolving religious landscape in India and the broader region, reflecting broader social, cultural, and possibly political changes.
Here is the change in religious population in other South Asian nations
Bangladesh: The Hindu population in Bangladesh experienced a dramatic 66% decline from 23% in 1950 to 8% in 2015, while the Buddhist and Christian populations remained relatively stable or increased, respectively.
Bhutan: The Tibetan Buddhist majority in Bhutan grew from 72% to 84% between 1950 and 2015, possibly influenced by the forced eviction of Nepali Hindus in the 1990s, which reduced the Hindu population by 50%.
Sri Lanka: The Buddhist majority increased by 5% from 64% in 1950 to 67% in 2015, while the Hindu and Christian populations saw decreases, and the Muslim population rose to become the third-largest religious group.
Pakistan: The Muslim population increased overall, especially among Shia and Ahmadiyya groups, while the Hindu population plummeted by 80% from 13% to 2% over 65 years.
Afghanistan: The Muslim population slightly increased from 99.4% in 1950 to 99.7% in 2015, with Sunni Muslims experiencing a minor increase and Shia numbers remaining stable.
Maldives: Unique among Muslim-majority countries, Maldives saw a slight decline of 1.47% in its majority Shafi’i Sunni population, dropping from 99.8% to 98.4%.
Nepal: The Hindu majority decreased by 4% from 84% to 81%, while the Buddhist population also saw a significant decrease and the Muslim population increased substantially.
Myanmar: The Buddhist majority saw a 10% decrease from 84% to 75%, with increases noted in the Christian population and indigenous religions.
