Scenarios for Final! Where does India stand on WTC points table before 3rd BGT Test in Brisbane?

After a historic triumph in Perth, India got a reality check in Adelaide. The Pat Cummins-led side made a thumping comeback to hammer the visitors by 10 wickets. With their crushing loss, India took a massive hit to their chances to qualify for the World Test Championship (WTC) final. They dropped from first place to third on WTC points table 2023-25.

Rohit Sharma’s India had a simple path to make it three out of three WTC finals. They needed to clinch home Test series against Bangladesh and New Zealand so that a draw or a loss at the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) wouldn’t have impacted that much. But New Zealand’s crushing defeat came unexpectedly for India, who lost the first home Test series in 12 years. Hence, the ongoing BGT holds utmost importance for India. As for Australia, they will still have 2 Tests remaining (away vs SL) after the BGT.

Latest WTC points table 2023-25 (as of Dec 10)

Team	Mat	Won	Lost	Draw	Points	PCT
SA	10	6	3	1	76	63.33
Aus	14	9	4	1	102	60.71
Ind	16	9	6	1	110	57.29
SL	11	5	6	0	60	45.45
Eng	21	11	9	1	114	45.24
NZ	13	6	7	0	69	44.23
Pak	10	4	6	0	40	33.33
Ban	12	4	8	0	45	31.25
WI	11	2	7	2	32	24.24

India’s WTC final hopes are precarious, relying heavily on the outcome of the remaining Tests. A series defeat would end their chances of a third consecutive final appearance.

Scenario 1: Win at Least Two and Draw One of the Remaining Tests

• Win two Tests: India needs to win at least two Tests against Australia to gain 60.53 points percentage.
• Draw one Test: A draw in the third Test would provide some buffer against Australia’s potential points gain in Sri Lanka.

One possible route is to win at least two and draw one of the remaining Tests. This would provide some buffer against Australia’s potential points gain in Sri Lanka.

Scenario 2: Win the Border Gavaskar Trophy 2-1 or

• If India wins the BGT 2-1, they would need Australia to not beat Sri Lanka 2-0.
• If Australia beats Sri Lanka 2-0, they can still finish ahead of India.

Another scenario is winning the BGT 2-1, which would require Australia to not beat Sri Lanka 2-0. Moreover, if India wins all three remaining games, then they would automatically qualify for the WTC Final.

Scenario 3: BGT Series Draw 2-2

• If the BGT ends in a 2-2 draw, India and Australia would be tied on 55.26% points.
• India would progress due to more series wins (three vs two).

If the BGT ends in a 2-2 draw, India and Australia would be tied on 55.26% points, with India progressing due to more series wins.

Scenario 4: Avoid Series Defeat

A 3-2 defeat would still keep India’s hopes alive if South Africa loses 0-2 to Pakistan and Australia gets at least one draw in Sri Lanka. However, a series defeat by a 1-2/1-3/1-4 margin would end India’s hopes of a third consecutive final appearance, irrespective of their remaining results. The subsequent Tests will be crucial in determining India’s fate in the WTC.

Latest from BGT

India’s remaining matches

India vs Australia – December 14-18, Brisbane
India vs Australia – December 26-30, Melbourne
India vs Australia – January 03 – 07, Sydney

Australia Remaining Matches

India vs Australia – December 14-18, Brisbane
India vs Australia – December 26-30, Melbourne
India vs Australia – January 03 – 07, Sydney
Sri Lanka vs Australia – January 29 – February 02, Galle
Sri Lanka vs Australia – February 06-10, Galle

South Africa Remaining Matches

South Africa vs Pakistan – December 26-30, Centurion
South Africa vs Pakistan – January 03-07, Cape Town