The driver was shot from the front and as the vehicle rolled into a ravine, it was sprayed with bullets. Nine pilgrims died and 33 were injured. (PTI photo)
This is exactly what any active Jammu and Kashmir observer would have expected and it happened. When India celebrates, it’s not just an occasion of joy but also of caution because on the other side of the Line of Control (LoC) are those who exploit such occasions to send a message. While India was marking yet another successful exercise of democracy, carrying out the inauguration of the third successive NDA government and the return of a strong Opposition (both important instruments of democracy), Pakistan-sponsored terrorists appeared on the Reasi-Katra road to ambush a bus full of pilgrims. The driver was shot from the front and as the vehicle rolled into a ravine, it was sprayed with bullets. Nine pilgrims died and 33 were injured. The Resistance Front, a virtual euphemism for the Lashkar e Taiba (LeT), announced that the attack was the “beginning of a renewed start”. Terrorist organisations like to use big-ticket national events to convey messages. This one should be interpreted as stating that Pakistan has simply invested too much in its J&K strategy, referred to as the “war by a thousand cuts”, to pull back.
The terror leadership and the ISI in Pakistan look upon the J&K situation as temporarily on hold, with efforts to continue remaining relevant and preventing any perception of J&K having been resolved in favour of India. Chinks in the Indian armour will be sought because striking when the strength of terrorists has been reduced well below the effective threshold is not easy.
There is a history of Pakistan-sponsored terrorists striking in sync with big and historic events. The most significant one is the Chittisinghpura massacre of March 20, 2000, when 36 Kashmiri Sikhs were shot in cold blood by the same LeT. Former US President Bill Clinton, on a state visit to India, was to address a joint session of Parliament the next morning. This time, in Reasi, it is about the projection of relevance, and that all is not over yet for the local separatists and stakeholders from across the LoC.
A single event can sometimes upset the applecart of stability. Carefully facilitated through the last five years after the bold decision to remove Article 370, several hard measures have been undertaken to break the back of terrorism. A plethora of networks — terror financing, media, over-ground workers (OGWs), ideological, separatist and many more — have been neutralised. Those who study such situations warn of an inevitable pushback to reclaim some of the space from which the Pakistani deep state’s interests have been removed. There were efforts to regain relevance through several low-level strikes at soft targets in the Valley. These included soldiers on leave, unarmed traffic policemen, migrant labourers and the minority community. The cumulative effect was perhaps insufficient, forcing a new strategy of targeting the security forces (SF) south of Pir Panjal where the infiltration dragnet is relatively weaker, the terrain extremely conducive to “strike and withdraw” operations and the overall alertness of a lower order due to a stable environment for almost 15 years. Recall Bafliaz six months ago, and other such incidents in the Poonch-Rajouri sector where SF elements were ambushed, leading to as many as 20 fatal casualties.
Two questions are relevant at this stage. First, is this a follow up to a successful general election in J&K, to convey that the assembly elections cannot be held as per the directions of the Supreme Court of India? September 30 is the deadline for that. Second, what should the government do to stave off public pressure? This pressure is obviously reflecting the deep-set anger at being at the receiving end with no response in kind. Let’s take the first issue. Under no circumstances must the system put off the assembly polls. All these years, despite difficult conditions and low turnout, polls were still held. The exercise of democracy and a good turnout is adequate messaging by the people against negative narratives. They have tasted the fruits of peace and stability, especially the youth. Those who grew up during the turbulent 35 years are finally witnessing a boom in tourism, a phenomenon they had only heard of. People from J&K are travelling and feeling the progress of a vibrant India. The assembly elections will symbolically convey a lot to the people and to the world of India’s clear intent. At the same time we have to redouble security efforts; the Amarnath Yatra needs to be fully secured with no let-up on resources.
The second question: How do we prevent such events and respond if they occur? In the last 10 years, we clearly established our red lines leading to the surgical strikes and the aerial strikes at Jaba Top, in 2016 and 2019. Has Pakistan overcome the deterrent effect of the responses and the red lines? This remains one of the most challenging problems for the government. The LoC ceasefire, stable since February 25, 2021, is one domain to examine. A pullback from the ceasefire, if at all, must deliver the effect we seek. Physical responses across the LoC remain an option but these also bear the possibility of a wider conflagration. We have to be fully prepared for that. The covert domain remains an option and must be just that — “covert”. The talk of international pressure is fine but we know well that Pakistan has wriggle space there. It could be pressurised for a moment, but its geostrategic significance draws support from important international players; this is one of the major reasons for its intransigence.
Notwithstanding all this, public pressure is something that will need to be addressed. The Indian government does not wilt under public pressure but clearly the options are limited. A lowering of our threshold and redrawing of red lines is perhaps called for but not under pressure. Pragmatic war gaming will still throw up several more options.
The writer is a former corps commander of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps
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