Big picture: Afghanistan and Australia in sudden-death contest
Much like Afghanistan’s match against England, the political spectre over this clash is hard to put aside. Matches are rare between the two countries, with Australia – like England – taking a human rights stance and pledging to suspend bilateral ties while the Taliban remain in power in Afghanistan.
Cricket Australia publicly demonstrated its commitment to the cause last month by hosting a T20 match featuring an Afghanistan women’s XI in Melbourne, bringing the issue firmly back under the spotlight.
But, underlining the complexities of the issue, Australia do play Afghanistan at ICC events – which has led to some criticism – and this intriguing, budding rivalry will resume in Lahore with much at stake.
Given the tournament’s sharp format, it’s basically sudden death, a virtual quarter-final, after Afghanistan knocked out England again from an ICC event.
But Afghanistan will be eliminated with a loss, while Australia also must win, with a defeat meaning they will have to rely on South Africa being absolutely pummeled by a beleaguered England, who have nothing to play for. A washout will see Australia through to the semi-final.
This is not the first time the two teams have met in a high-stakes contest at a world event. At the 2022 T20 World Cup, Australia emerged with a slim six-run victory in Adelaide that was ultimately not the net-run-rate boost they needed as they crashed out early on home soil.
Glenn Maxwell, of course, changed the course of the 2023 World Cup with a remarkable double-century that still beggars belief. But Afghanistan had some measure of revenge at last year’s T20 World Cup as they overcame a brief Maxwell onslaught with a 21-run victory that sealed their place in the semi-finals.
And, once again, a semi-final spot is up for grabs. The form line is a little hard to read with both teams having tight wins over a wheezing England. Afghanistan bounced back strongly after a disastrous opening against South Africa while Australia’s momentum came to a halt after their clash against South Africa was washed out.
Even though they are considerably weakened – against England they fielded their least experienced attack at an ICC ODI event since 1983 – Australia mustered up their big-game pedigree under pressure to make a statement. Their batting line-up still contains plenty of firepower with Josh Inglis emerging as a genuine star batter across formats. It is little wonder that some believe he’s Australia’s next captain.
A backs-against-the-wall triumph is in play, but Australia will have to firstly get past rising Afghanistan in a game that feels evenly poised. Afghanistan will lean on their spin-heavy attack, but Australia do have numerous players adept against the turning ball – led by Inglis.
Australia’s depleted pace stocks makes that department more equally matched than previous encounters, while an in-form Ibrahim Zadran – coming off a Champions Trophy-best score of 177 – ensures he can go toe-to-toe with his counterparts.
The prospect of more bad weather in Lahore could also play a factor in a clash that is set to be just as compelling as the recent matches between these teams.
Form guide
Afghanistan WLWWW (last five completed matches, most recent first) Australia WLLLL
In the spotlight: Azmatullah Omarzai and Glenn Maxwell
While Afghanistan’s slew of quality spinners deservedly attracts plenty of attention, seam bowling allrounder Azmatullah Omarzai stole the show against England with the maiden five-wicket haul of his professional career. He was particularly superb at the death with three wickets when the game was on a knife’s edge. Omarzai’s emergence has helped Afghanistan better balance their attack and they are no longer merely reliant on their spinners for success. He’ll need to back up that performance against a formidable Australia batting order and his canny, skiddy bowling will need to be on point against big-hitting openers Travis Head and Matthew Short. If he can strike early, then Afghanistan will be right in the hunt.
There isn’t much cricket history between the countries, but Glenn Maxwell is probably the first name that springs to mind with this match-up. In the last ODI between the teams, a hobbling Maxwell produced one of the great innings to rescue Australia from the brink at the 2023 World Cup and crush Afghanistan. Maxwell enters this match in great form having put the finishing touches against England after a brilliant end to the BBL season. It will be interesting to see if his presence at the crease spooks Afghanistan, who are adamant they haven’t devoted too much of their plans on him.
Team news: Sean Abbott for Spencer Johnson?
After such a momentous victory, Afghanistan are likely to go unchanged for the third straight game and back their spin strength in subcontinental conditions. The trio of Rashid Khan, Mohammad Nabi and Noor Ahmad will present considerable challenges for the Australians.
Afghanistan (possible): 1 Ibrahim Zadran, 2 Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), 3 Sediqullah Atal, 4 Rahmat Shah, 5 Hashmatullah Shahidi (capt), 6 Azmatullah Omarzai, 7 Mohammad Nabi, 8 Gulbadin Naib, 9 Rashid Khan, 10 Noor Ahmad, 11 Fazalhaq Farooqi
Due to the inclement conditions, team lists weren’t even announced for the Australia-South Africa clash. It makes predicting Australia’s line-up somewhat difficult. The team is mostly settled, but they might be tempted to tweak their bowling attack that leaked 351 runs against England. Left-arm quick Spencer Johnson might be in the selection gun after he was overlooked for the death overs against England. But his pace and bounce could be a weapon against Afghanistan’s top order. Australia, who trained indoors on match eve, will also consider bowling allrounder Sean Abbott, who offers a point of difference and strengthens the batting, and legspinner Tanveer Sangha, given Marnus Labuschagne’s part-time legspin played a role against England.
Australia (possible): 1 Matthew Short, 2 Travis Head, 3 Steven Smith (capt), 4 Marnus Labuschagne, 5 Josh Inglis (wk), 6 Alex Carey, 7 Glenn Maxwell, 8 Sean Abbott/Spencer Johnson, 9 Ben Dwarshuis, 10 Nathan Ellis, 11 Adam Zampa
Pitch and conditions
Both teams are now well acquainted with the conditions in Lahore, which has been considerably batting-friendly. While it’s been mostly tough going for pace bowlers, spinners have had an impact despite minimal turn off the surface. After the washout between Australia and South Africa, rain again threatens to spoil the party although the forecast is better from the late afternoon onwards. But with plenty of rain cascading on the ground in the lead-up, drainage could also be an issue.
Stats and trivia
Quotes
“We have been planning for all of the Australian team. I know that he played really well in the 2023 World Cup, but that’s part of history. We beat them in the T20 World Cup….we are not coming to the ground to plan on [just one] individual player.” Afghanistan captain Hashmatullah Shahidi says his team won’t be entirely focused on Maxwell
“If the whole match rains out, I think that means we go through to the semi-finals, but obviously we’d love to be able to win the game tomorrow and finish top in the pool.” Australia batter Marnus Labuschagne on the possible rain factor
