For the last several months – in fact, years, by some reckoning – Pakistan has faced twin crises that have marred its political-economy. Its economy in shambles, Pakistan has had to reach out to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout – the $7 billion given in July was the 25th time the IMF gave Pakistan money. On the political front, now jailed leader Imran Khan and his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) have proved an x-factor – initially propped up by the army it is now a political challenge for Rawalpindi. Added to this are disaffected voices from the country’s so-called periphery, which are now presenting a political as well as security challenge.
The third factor is India, which continues to loom large. With a restive western border with Afghanistan, trouble in Balochistan and internal security issues, stability on the border with India is crucial for Pakistan.
IMF and economic reform
Writing in Dawn, Ishrat Husain, former governor of the State Bank of Pakistan, makes the case for comprehensive economic reform. “The country requires a comprehensive three-year action plan for domestic reforms, in addition to solidifying external accounts, to ensure a smooth exit from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme and transition to a self-sustained, non-inflationary growth path.”
But the roadmap he lays out presents a gargantuan task: “The government must focus on increasing investment, controlling fiscal deficits, devolving services, addressing energy crisis and reforming civil services.”
The Nation, in its October 11 editorial, makes the case that the current government, led by PM Shahbaz Sharif, has done well. Citing the termination of costly contracts with independent power producers that breed inefficiencies, it says: “On the back of significant economic achievements, such as reducing inflation to below single digits and negotiating a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the government has now secured an even greater success.”
However, Kamal Monnoo, makes a different argument in the same newspaper. He argues that the current green shoots in the economy have more to do with external factors, such inflation coming down globally. “Our economic managers need to be careful with their claims, because sooner than later these need to be backed by some competent economic management, key reforms and sustainable results. Also, the danger is that often such persistent cum exaggerated rhetoric can get delusional where the policymakers actually start believing their story,” he writes.
Disaffection in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Two Pakistani papers, Dawn and The Nation, present widely differing perspectives on the Grand Jirga – a gathering of Pashtun tribal leaders – in KP province. The government recently banned the Pashtun Qaumi Jirga organised by the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) and is putting up a rival gathering of its own.
According to The Nation’s editorial on October 11, “ The lines are clearly drawn. On one side is the banned gathering of peace activists under the PTM banner, and on the other is the government’s invitation to engage in addressing the longstanding militancy in the province, regardless of its potential success. This is a necessary decision by the government.”
Dawn, on the other hand, takes a more nuanced view. It says, “Looking at KP… from where the PTM gathers most of its support, this part of Pakistan — especially areas close to the Afghan border — have experienced violence, displacement, and militancy ever since the ‘war on terror’ arrived in this region over two decades ago… It is these factors, amongst others, which led to the rise of the PTM.”
Urban KP is also an area where the PTI finds resonance. Dawn argues that “the state should engage with critical voices, and refrain from forcibly silencing them, as this opens the door to radicalisation, militancy, and separatist sentiments.”
Climate change, India and Pakistan
Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz recently brought up the need for collaboration on climate action. Like Delhi, Lahore too suffers in autumn and winter from severe pollution.
“Climate change is impacting state-centrism beyond diplomatic protocols. Notwithstanding bilateral irritants, it’s time for Pakistan and India to cooperate in the realm of environmental degradation in order to mitigate smog impact, at least, in the harvest-rich regions on both sides of the divide,” argues the Express Tribune in its editorial on October 11.
“It could come as a blessing in disguise,” argues the editorial, “to reduce the prevailing tensions between the two countries, as two billion people will come together to sort out an existential crisis.”
