Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, will be the chief guest of India’s Republic Day celebrations on January 26. (@prabowo/X)
Jan 25, 2025 15:17 IST First published on: Jan 25, 2025 at 07:30 IST
A key outcome of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s visit to India is likely to be the establishment of a broader and more strategic partnership between the two nations. This is expected to encompass greater depth and diversity, reflecting Prabowo’s aspirations to position Indonesia as a significant player on the global stage, beyond the confines of ASEAN. Prabowo’s vision suggests an emphasis on greater strategic autonomy while navigating the complexities of the international order. In this, his perspectives align more closely with India.
During the second terms of Indonesian President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, their respective foreign ministers, Retno Marsudi and S Jaishankar, forged an underplayed yet effective working relationship. Regular foreign ministerial consultations between the two nations gained momentum under them. This was further bolstered by India and Indonesia’s consecutive presidencies of the G20 in 2022 and 2023.
While India and Indonesia do not always share identical worldviews or voting patterns in forums such as the United Nations, their increasing engagement has paved the way for a more coherent partnership. Prabowo, like Modi, is determined to elevate his country’s global stature. A critical challenge lies in how Jaishankar builds a rapport with Indonesia’s new foreign minister, Sugiono. A successful partnership could enhance the prospects of a high-profile Modi-Prabowo relationship — something the Modi-Jokowi dynamic could not fully achieve.
Indonesia’s membership of BRICS, granted in 2023, presents another avenue for collaboration. Much like India and Brazil on BRICS’ platforms, India and Indonesia can leverage their partnership to bring strategic heft to this bloc. While Indonesia is unlikely to deviate significantly from Chinese preferences due to its deep economic ties with Beijing, Prabowo’s autonomous policymaking tendencies provide room for cooperation that transcends the “China factor”. Prabowo has already made two trips to China — once as President-elect and another as President — highlighting the challenge of aligning Indonesia’s stance with India’s perspectives on China.
India and Indonesia must also identify areas of collaboration beyond the China factor. The Indo-Pacific is one such domain. Indonesia, which initially displayed reticence on the Indo-Pacific concept, has evolved its stance significantly. Under Jokowi, Indonesia played a leading role in crafting ASEAN’s Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP). This was instrumental in aligning the AOIP with India’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) through a joint statement. Indonesia has committed to supporting the maritime resources pillar under the IPOI. By collaborating on projects within this pillar, the two nations can promote a pro-regional agenda beyond ASEAN, aligning with Prabowo’s vision of creating an “ASEAN Plus” policy.
Another potential area is the development of trilateral partnerships. India and Indonesia, alongside Australia, already have a trilateral framework, though it lacks substantial content. Prabowo’s visit to New Delhi, following his engagement with Australia, could energise this. It can build upon the IPOI and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), with India set to assume its chairmanship this year.
India and Indonesia can also engage more directly on how the ASEAN-plus-one, East Asia Summit (EAS) and ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) meetings progress. Both should have prior consultations to make a meaningful impact on such regional architecture. Myanmar, for instance, is an issue on which India and Indonesia have different views but have stayed in touch. This should expand. Indonesia should be invited to join the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) to integrate it better with India’s eastern neighbourhood.
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Prabowo’s visit to India also follows a successful visit by Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba to Jakarta. Japan has recently expanded its Official Security Assistance (OSA) policy to include Indonesia, providing defence-related support. This opens the door for a potential India-Japan-Indonesia trilateral partnership.
Leveraging platforms such as BRICS, the IPOI, and trilateral frameworks with Australia and Japan, both India and Indonesia can forge a deeper partnership. While differences in perspectives, particularly regarding China, persist, the focus must remain on areas of convergence. A robust India-Indonesia partnership has the potential to shape the strategic landscape of the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
The writer is former Indian ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union
