The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19 couldn’t have come at a more inappropriate time for Iran. The incident occurred in Varzaqan in Iran’s East Azerbaijan province when Raisi and the country’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian were returning after concluding their visit to Azerbaijan.
At a time when Iran was strategically strengthening its alliances with its non-Arab neighbours in a bid to counterbalance Israel’s influence on the Arab nations in the Middle East, the deaths are serious blows.
In less than a month, Raisi visited Pakistan and Azerbaijan, two of its most significant neighbours, to bolster bilateral ties. These visits came against the backdrop of the recent escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, which has heightened regional tensions. Iran’s strategy involves rallying support from neighbouring countries to present a united front against Israel’s actions in Gaza and beyond. This diplomatic outreach is critical for Iran to bolster its regional standing and ensure its geopolitical interests are protected.
Both Pakistan and Azerbaijan have shared a complicated relationship with Iran. Iran’s relations with Pakistan have deteriorated over the years, with both sides accusing each other of fermenting separatism in their respective backyards. Their relations hit a nadir when, in January this year, Iran carried out strikes on an anti-Iranian militant group, Jaish al Adl (Army of Justice), in Pakistan’s Balochistan province. Pakistan responded two days later with its own airstrikes on Balochi separatists in Sistan province of Iran. The crisis seemed set to escalate, but both sides realised the costs of such an escalation and, since then, have made efforts to normalise ties. President Raisi’s visit to Pakistan last month, apart from other things, was a step toward it.
Similarly, Iran and Azerbaijan have shared an uneasy relationship despite historical, cultural, and religious ties. Both Iran and Azerbaijan are Shia-majority Muslim countries. Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, is of Azeri descent. However, Azerbaijan has increasingly aligned itself with the West. As a result, many prominent Iranian politicians have repeatedly called Azerbaijan an Israeli proxy.
However, the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict has redrawn the contours of alignment in the Middle East, lifting the veil from the strategic yet awkward alliance between the Arab nations and Israel. The manner in which Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Jordan, assisted Washington and Tel Aviv in blunting the unprecedented Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel sent a strong message about the Israeli and Iranian position in the region.
The Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff declared that Iran’s attack had created new opportunities for cooperation in the Middle East. The regional coalition that participated in intercepting missiles and drones from Iran demonstrated the establishment of a regional Arab-Israel alliance against Iran.
Feeling increasingly isolated, Tehran realised that it had to reassess its game plan in the Middle East and secure its ties with its other non-Arab neighbours. Iran’s outreaches to Islamabad and Baku are part of its efforts to secure its western and northern borders and enhance its strategic depth. Raisi’s diplomatic efforts were thus part of a broader strategy to counter Israel’s influence in the region and get relief from the economic sanctions from the West, which could get harsher in the near future.
By strengthening alliances with non-Arab countries like Pakistan and Azerbaijan, Tehran aims to build a network of supportive states that could help counterbalance Israel’s strategic moves. This approach not only diversifies Iran’s diplomatic and economic partnerships but also creates a buffer against potential military and political threats from Israel and its new regional allies.
Raisi’s visit to Pakistan in April aimed to reinforce bilateral relations, particularly in the realms of economic cooperation and regional security. During his trip, Raisi and Pakistan’s Prime Minister agreed to enhance the bilateral trade to $10 billion annually, signalling a strong commitment to economic partnership despite potential repercussions from Western sanctions. The steps towards resumption of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline deal also came as a major breakthrough for Tehran that can soothe its economic woes. Their joint statement urging the United Nations Security Council to take action against Israel for illegally targeting neighbouring countries and foreign diplomatic facilities showcased convergence on their stand towards Israel.
Raisi’s visit to Azerbaijan was similarly aimed at bolstering regional alliances. The strategic importance of Azerbaijan to Iran lies in its geographic location and its potential role as a partner in various regional initiatives. Strengthening ties with Azerbaijan allows Iran to create a more unified front in the Caucasus region, which is essential for countering the geopolitical moves of Israel and its allies.
President Raisi’s visits to Pakistan and Azerbaijan highlighted Iran’s strategic efforts to strengthen alliances with non-Arab neighbours as part of a broader strategy to counter Israel’s influence in the region. These visits underscored Iran’s commitment to enhancing regional security and diplomatic ties with key neighbouring countries, thereby creating a more robust network of allies in a volatile geopolitical landscape.
The unexpected death of President Raisi significantly jeopardises Iran’s strategic efforts to forge alliances with non-Arab nations. These alliances were pivotal in Iran’s broader geopolitical strategy to counterbalance Israel’s influence in the region. His death creates a leadership vacuum at a critical juncture, potentially stalling the momentum of these diplomatic efforts and causing instability in Iran’s foreign policy direction. Moreover, the loss of Raisi’s personal diplomatic engagements and his unique influence could diminish Iran’s capacity to effectively rally regional support against Israel, weakening its strategic position and disrupting plans for a regional anti-Israel alliance.
The author is a senior IPS officer with a PhD in Security Studies from Princeton. He writes regularly on geopolitical and security issues. The views expressed are personal
