Preparing for the Trump disruption

External affairs minister S Jaishankar’s nearly week-long visit to the US was aimed at taking stock of one of India’s most crucial and consequential bilateral relationships and included meetings with both members of the outgoing Joe Biden administration and the transition team of President-elect Donald Trump. For more than two decades now, New Delhi has benefited from bipartisan support in the US for a closer embrace of India, which has extended from trade and education to defence and high technology. The two countries work closely together on strategic and security issues across the Indo-Pacific, with these efforts driven by common concerns about an increasingly assertive China, while two-way trade in goods and services was worth $190 billion in 2023. The groundbreaking initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) has, within a short period, taken cooperation in the technologies of tomorrow to new heights.

However, Jaishankar’s visit was also an acknowledgement of the disruption that most experts say will accompany the second term of Trump, whose decision-making and fashioning of relationships have been unpredictable and whimsical. With weeks to go for Trump’s inauguration, his transition team is already mired in controversies over immigration, including a raging debate within the Republican Party on legal migration. Trump has come out strongly in favour of the H-1B visa programme that many skilled Indian professionals have benefited from, but the latest developments show that there will be an American Right-wing constituency against Indian immigration. India must also prepare for disruption in trade, what with Trump talking of hitting the country with strong tariffs. In his first term, Trump’s administration ended the benefits under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) programme and pushed India into ending oil imports from Iran.

There was much in Trump’s first term that bolstered relations with India — focus on the Indo-Pacific, easing of restrictions on technology transfers, revival of Quad and a clear posture on China. It remains to be seen, though, how Trump will deal with China now, with reports suggesting he had invited President Xi Jinping to his inauguration, though there was no acceptance. While India clearly has the diplomatic wherewithal to deal with what is coming, especially by building on its experiences from Trump’s first term, New Delhi should avoid over-optimism and prepare for all contingencies while making the most of what’s possible.

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