Poll lessons for the BJP and Congress

What explains the victory of the incumbents in Jharkhand and Maharashtra? The incumbent chief ministers (CMs) were popular, of course, but their popularity alone could not have delivered such sweeping wins. One common factor in both states, which analysts are likely to highlight, is that the Ladki Bahin Yojana in Maharashtra and Maiya Samman Yojana in Jharkhand rallied women voters in favour of the incumbents. The Axis My-India exit poll that predicted landslide victories for the NDA in Maharashtra and INDIA block in Jharkhand did note a significant support for the incumbent among women voters.

Did women voters alone turn the table in favour of the incumbent? Why did the Opposition campaign in both states fail to gain traction? After all, the NDA in Jharkhand and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in Maharashtra had compelling narratives: In Jharkhand, the BJP attempted to mobilise voters on the issue of infiltration by illegal migrants while the MVA focussed mainly on issues of social justice. The Opposition in both states highlighted the economic distress, unemployment, corruption and mis-governance of the incumbent in their campaigns.

There is another way to read the poll outcomes of the past one year. The results are defying expectations and the parties confident of being ahead seem to lose ground at the end of extended campaigns. Is it a story of confidence turning into over-confidence (and in some cases, arrogance), eventually leading to the loss of votes and seats? Many thought that the Congress would retain Chhattisgarh and regain Madhya Pradesh in 2023. The BJP expected to increase its majority in the 2024 Lok Sabha, and the Congress, a return to office in Haryana. The results turned out to be different.

The assumption that the BJP was ahead in Jharkhand and the MVA led in Maharashtra was not entirely unfounded. For example, the BJP had done well in Jharkhand in the Lok Sabha elections. The INDIA bloc had made a dent, but only in the Scheduled Tribe (ST)- dominated seats. The BJP also had a strong social coalition in Jharkhand: The All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) was an ally, Babulal Marandi, the first CM of Jharkhand and a BJP rebel, had returned to the party fold, and important tribal leaders such as Champai Soren had joined the saffron outfit. The BJP had hoped that its narrative on infiltration would help Hindu consolidation.

Similarly, many thought the MVA was poised to return in Maharashtra on account of the drubbing the Mahayuti received in the Lok Sabha election. They assumed that though the Ladki Bahin Yojana would turn the elections into a competitive affair, it would not be enough to overcome factors such as rural distress and the Maratha quota stir.

These expectations eventually did not hold up. The landslide victories of the incumbents in both states indicate that the regional divides and socio-economic fault lines have been flattened. The winners have consolidated their core voters, made gains in non-core segments, and improved both their vote shares and seat tallies as compared to the previous election.

These results should be a sobering reminder to the Congress that its performance during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections was a one-time affair.

So, what do the results mean for the Congress and the BJP?

The Congress is yet to figure out the reasons for its loss in Haryana, and now, it has been pushed to fifth place in terms of seats in the Maharashtra legislative assembly. Within a decade of being the pre-eminent party in the state, the Congress’s tally has fallen to its lowest in Maharashtra. In Jammu Kashmir and Jharkhand, which the INDIA bloc won, the party’s strike rate was much lower than that of its alliance partners.

Assembly elections are due in Delhi and Bihar next year. It remains to be seen if the Aam Aadmi Party will ally with the Congress. Even if it does, the Congress is unlikely to get a respectable deal in terms of seats. Similarly, in Bihar, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is unlikely to indulge the Congress since its recent performances have been below par. Moreover, the Congress had contested 70 of 243 seats in Bihar in the 2020 assembly elections and won just 19, whereas the RJD won 75 of 144 seats, and the Left parties won 19 of 29 seats. Given this, it is time for the Congress to go back to the drawing board and reformulate its revival plan if it hopes to build on its improved performance in the general election.

The BJP has reasons to be happy with the Maharashtra results considering the setback in the Lok Sabha election. It has redeemed itself by winning office in Haryana and Maharashtra. However, the BJP must remember that its challenges are far from over. The failure to regain Jharkhand will hurt: The scale of defeat should force introspection over its mobilisation strategy, which this time relied on creating a wedge between dominant and non-dominant communities and religious polarisation.

Both the Haryana and Maharashtra results suggest that the party has the capability to turn around elections even at the stage of the campaign.It could do so as an incumbent in the two states, but failed as an opponent in Jharkhand. Between 2014 and 2024, the BJP was more likely to win as an opposition and had a difficulty in retaining states as an incumbent. Welfare promises alone may not necessarily help the BJP in Delhi next year, or West Bengal in 2026. The BJP is desperate to win these, but in both places the adversaries are incumbent parties with strong welfarist orientation. The party needs to re-calibrate its election strategy in a post-2024 scenario that requires working on multiple fronts and not solely relying on the Opposition’s mistakes or Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma.

Rahul Verma is a fellow at the Centre for Policy Research (CPR), New Delhi. The views expressed are personal