At the first step — government formation — Mr Modi has faltered and failed the country. The people look forward to the second and third steps — President’s address and Budget.
The story of the new government, sworn in on June 9, 2024, can be summed up in ten words: people voted for change, Mr Narendra Modi opted for continuity.
The Voters
The voters, blessed with common sense, got it right. They rejected the BJP’s model of governance of the last ten years but were willing to give Mr Modi another opportunity if he made a major course correction. The BJP started with 303 seats and set a target of 370 for itself and a target of 400+ for the NDA. It fell woefully short of both targets. Ultimately, the BJP could manage only a miserable 240 for itself and a sub-par 292 for the NDA. The people’s message to the BJP was clear: form a coalition government with important roles for the constituent parties, abandon divisive policies, acknowledge the reality of the economic situation, heal social divisions, avoid boastful claims, and take all Indians on the development path.
The voters also concluded that though the principal opposition party, the Congress, had made a determined effort to wrest power, it was perhaps not yet ready. It had to re-grow its roots in 9 states that account for 170 seats in the Lok Sabha.
The BJP
Mr Narendra Modi got a conditional mandate to form the government but, as is his wont, he allowed hubris to cloud his judgement. After the initial shock, Mr Modi realized that there were no challengers to him in his party and no other party had the numbers to stake a claim. He also concluded, correctly, that both Mr Chandrababu Naidu (TDP) and Mr Nitish Kumar (JDU) were transactional leaders and more interested in protecting their hard-won turf in Andhra Pradesh and Bihar, respectively, than play ‘kingmaker’ in Delhi. As it turned out, Mr Modi could easily satisfy them with private assurances of funds, schemes and some kind of ‘special status’ for their states.
Where Mr Modi erred was in repeating his core team, which I discuss below.
The Congress
The arithmetic stares in the face. Congress won 79 out of its 99 seats from only nine states. In nine other states that have 170 seats, Congress won only four (zero in five states and one each in four states). It will be useful to analyze what the Congress did right in the former nine states and what it did wrong in the latter nine states. Preparatory work was done by the party at its conclaves at Udaipur and Raipur but the preparation does not appear to have been taken forward to the desired conclusion. The bright sparks are Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand which will hold state Assembly elections in a few months. Going by the seats won in the LS 2024 elections, Congress, together with its allies, has made a head start in the three states, and has an even chance of capturing power in the state elections. Since the consequences of the elections in the three states go beyond those states, the BJP will certainly put up a stiff fight. The I.N.D.I.A. bloc must fight to win.
The Government
When Mr Modi chose continuity over change, he shot himself in the foot. Several inferences can be drawn from the composition of Mr Modi’s third government and the distribution of portfolios. Firstly, Mr Modi has spurned the warning of the electorate to change the course and style of his government. Secondly, he has stubbornly maintained that there was nothing wrong in the basic policies of his government, especially the policies concerning the economy, internal security and foreign policy. Thirdly, he has implicitly acknowledged that there was a serious talent deficit in his ranks. Fourthly, he has made it clear that there was place in his Cabinet only for those who accepted that his third government would be PMO-driven. Lastly, he is convinced that Mr Amit Shah and he have the resources to manage the allies without according them a respectable role in the government.
None of the ministers has yet spoken on his/her priorities or policies. Ms Nirmala Sitharaman may continue to assert that the Indian economy is growing at a clipping rate, that 240 million had been lifted out of poverty, that inflation is low, that jobs are being created, and that India will become a USD 5 trillion economy on an indeterminate date. Mr Amit Shah may maintain that terrorism has been vanquished, that Manipur is being governed according to the Constitution, that CAA and UCC are on course, and that the three laws to replace the IPC, CrPC and the Evidence Act are the best things that have happened to India since Thomas Babington Macaulay. Mr Jaishankar may bask in the glory of photo opportunities in the capitals of the world while China silently fortifies its self-declared border with India and builds new economic and military ties with Maldives, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Myanmar. Mr Rajnath Singh may believe that the job of a Defence Minister is done by visiting troops from time to time and leaving lesser matters to the NSA and CDS. Mr Piyush Goyal may continue to sell the idea that India’s industry and foreign trade are flourishing while the trade deficit is likely to remain over USD 200 billion a year (of which China alone accounts for USD 85 billion). With the appointment of Mr P. K. Mishra as principal secretary and Mr Ajit Doval as NSA, the sameness of the Modi government has been affirmed, signed and sealed.
It is certainly not Modi 3.0. It is Modi 2.1.
The people wanted ‘a change for the better’ in their lives. The people voted for jobs, price stability, and peace and security. If the same Ministers occupy the same offices and propagate the same policies, it will be a cruel mockery of the verdict of the people. At the first step — government formation — Mr Modi has faltered and failed the country. The people look forward to the second and third steps — President’s address and Budget.
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