Another strong leader has been elected. Mr Donald Trump won fair and square in a democratic election in one of the oldest democracies of the world. No one can question the legitimacy of the election process in the United States. Mr Trump, the Republican Party candidate, won the majority of the electoral votes: 301 to 226 for Ms Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party candidate. He also won the popular vote: 72.9 million to 68.3 million. The Republican domination of the 2024 election was further established by the party acquiring control of the Senate and likely to retain control of the House of Representatives.
By every standard it was a comprehensive and thumping victory for Mr Trump and the Republican Party.
The pre-election polls were terribly wrong. The so-called ‘close’ election was not anywhere near close. The so-called seven ‘swing’ states swung one way, in favour of Mr Trump:
State Popular Vote
TRUMP HARRIS
Arizona 1,303,793 1,167,898
Georgia 2,654,306 2,538,986
Michigan 2,799,713 2,715,684
Nevada 688,179 647,247
North Carolina 2,876,141 2,685,451
Pennsylvania 3,473,325 3,339,559
Wisconsin 1,697,237 1,668,757
In a fiercely contested election, the margins were significant to substantial.
What MAGA means
Most independent observers and most unbiased media were agreed that Mr Trump’s election campaign and his speeches were misogynistic, racist, abusive, and divisive. But the majority of the American people did not care. They cared — and apparently were very concerned — about immigration, inflation and crime. Except inflation, the other two are not what we call ‘bread and butter’ issues; they could be described, loosely, as ‘survive or sink’ issues. Immigration is seen as opening the door for ‘people not like us’ swamping the white American Christian citizens of the U.S.
Latter-day immigrants (mainly Latino voters) also felt that the new immigrants were a threat to the old immigrants. Inflation hurts everyone in every country. Although inflation was contained in the U.S. to 2.4 per cent and the U.S. Fed is poised to reduce the policy interest rate (a sign of lower inflation), nevertheless inflation was a powerful weapon in the hands of the Republican Party. The U.S., like most countries, has witnessed more crimes, thanks to growing population, urbanisation and drugs. Crime is an all-season weapon and any government in office is vulnerable.
Mr Trump exploited these issues to the fullest. And he did in his own bare-knuckle way using coarse and profane language. What surprised me was that the voters did not object to the coarseness and profanity.
Moderation & Decency Lost
On the other hand, the main issues that Ms Kamala Harris took up in her campaign did not find resonance among the majority of voters: abortion and women’s rights, the sanctity of the Constitution, fairness, racial equality and compassion. It is a tragedy that these values lost the battle against Mr Trump who has scant regard for them.
Among other issues that seem to have ‘lost’ in the U.S. elections is the brutal killing of nearly 44,000 Palestinians (among them thousands of women and children and United Nations staff). The Russian invasion of Ukraine hardly created a ripple. Most Americans did not give tuppence for China threatening Taiwan, North Korea firing long-range inter-continental missiles that could land on American soil, the civil wars in several countries, and the restrictions on freedom in so-called democracies. Nor did most voters seem to care that they were voting for — and eventually electing — a convicted person awaiting a sentence. On the economy, the majority of American voters seem to care little for withdrawing from policies (free and open trade, low tariffs, anti-monopoly) that have made the United States the richest country in the world. The economic players who are cheering Mr Trump’s victory are Big Oil, Big Pharma and Big Tech.
Gender and Colour
Ultimately, the American voters voted according to their predilections and prejudices. Male voters preferred Mr Trump. Young voters (18-29 years) preferred Mr Trump. Working class voters preferred Mr Trump. Non-graduate voters preferred Mr Trump. Latino voters (Mexicans, Puerto Ricans and Cubans) preferred Mr Trump. The blunt truth be told, they voted against Ms Harris mainly because of her gender and colour.
It is a matter of speculation whether the results of the U.S. elections will influence the elections in other countries. They could. Mr Trump’s victory could encourage leaders of other countries to emulate the coarse language and the divisive rhetoric that he successfully used in the American elections. If Mr Trump’s model spreads to other countries, it will be a grave setback to democracy.
