On Sunday, Novak Djokovic will play his 37th Major final. Carlos Alcaraz will play his fourth.
Djokovic will be vying for an all-time record-setting (man or woman) 25th Grand Slam singles title. Alcaraz will be vying for his fourth.
Djokovic aims to equal Roger Federer’s tally of eight Wimbledon titles. Alcaraz hopes to become just the sixth man to win the French Open and Wimbledon in the same year in the Open Era.
Novak Djokovic stands on the brink of history
👉 Swipe for your round-up of Day 12 with @emirates #FlyBetter Moments#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/0QwE86s4qd
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 12, 2024
It remains astonishingly rare for two players on opposite ends of their careers and opposite ends of making history – one flourishing in his many firsts, the other prolonging his lasts – to meet in a high-stakes occasion like this. Yet for the second successive summer, Wimbledon will have the fortune of hosting the tennis spectacle of the year.
The circumstances since last year’s final, in which Alcaraz beat Djokovic in a five-set thriller, have changed drastically. Question marks surround both; margins are expected to be razor thin.
Slow starts, serving slump
Alcaraz has learned to deal with the momentum shifts of best-of-five sets tennis and raise his game when it matters most. Last year, he walked into the final with ghosts of a capitulation against the same opponent at the French Open. This year, he has come into it with the Roland Garros trophy.
Novak Djokovic is a #Wimbledon finalist once again 🇷🇸
The 7-time champion defeats Lorenzo Musetti 6-4, 7-6(2), 6-4#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/Gx6pwb39DH
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 12, 2024
Still, at present, his form is not touching the sky-high heights it was coming into the final 12 months ago. Through the French Open and Wimbledon, he has developed a pattern of starting matches slowly. He has lost the first set in three of his six matches at SW19, and he was taken to the wire in five sets by Frances Tiafoe in the third round.
His sluggish starts show he takes time to work himself into an encounter, and his average serving record does not allow him to win free points; on the contrary, it is an area that opponents attack.
Through his six matches so far, Alcaraz has won about 72.16 percent of the points on his first serve, slightly below the tournament average of 74 percent. But when he starts matches tentatively, he either misses too many first serves, or does not back them up well enough. In each of the sets he has lost at SW19 this fortnight, he has won only about half (58 percent) the points behind his first serve.
His opponent has been serving a lot more ruthlessly. Djokovic has won 81.66 percent of the points on his first serve and 60 percent on his second (compared to Alcaraz’s 56 percent). It is an area the Serb will look to target to establish a fast start, especially since he remains an eliter returner of serve, even on one leg.
The title defence rolls on 💪
Carlos Alcaraz defeats Daniil Medvedev 6-7(1), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/gPS9G6sDaa
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 12, 2024
Physical test
Only 39 days ago, Djokovic underwent prompt knee surgery after tearing his right meniscus and withdrawing from the French Open. As always, he has shown his mastery over the grass courts of SW19 as he has marched through the draw. But Djokovic is yet to be tested to the degree that Alcaraz may – he got a walkover in the quarterfinal and his highest-ranked opponent in six matches has been the World No. 15 Holger Rune.
Djokovic has also been in something of a slump all year. This is his first final since November last year and there have been some unexpected defeats. In terms of match fitness and sharpness, Alcaraz is red hot and Djokovic lukewarm.
Nothing but respect from @DjokerNole 💯#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/y2imjnGsL8
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 12, 2024
That may be the Serb’s greatest challenge. Alcaraz’s recent performances show that even when his serve goes missing and his play becomes streaky, he bides his time and raises his level. Once his groundstrokes find more sting, he takes control from the baseline using his drop shots and slices too, making opponents scurry and slide side-to-side in a way that Djokovic, and his dodgy knee, have not quite faced this week.
This contest may come down to the finer details. The frequency and success with which Djokovic comes to the net will play a role in disrupting Alcaraz’s baseline rhythm. The Serb’s crosscourt backhand may also be key, if he drops it short and high too often, Alcaraz will run around it to bludgeon forehands and take control.
