New pain points on China border

India’s decision to proceed cautiously in ongoing efforts to normalise ties with China is understandable in the light of recent worrisome developments, including Beijing’s green-lighting of what will become the world’s largest hydropower dam on the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra, and the creation of two counties in occupied regions of the Union territory of Ladakh. Both moves come a little more than two months after Delhi and Beijing reached an understanding on the disengagement of forces along the Line of Actual Control as part of the process of ending the military standoff that began early 2020. Throughout this process, the Chinese side has sought to create an impression that things are back to normal between the two countries and the border issue should be put in its “appropriate place” while relations are taken forward in other spheres, primarily trade and business.

The Indian side contends that the resolution of the face-off in the Ladakh sector remains a “work in progress”, and China’s recent moves may only complicate this process. China’s plan to build a $137-billion dam on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo in the ecologically fragile Tibetan plateau is certain to have tremendous implications for millions of people in the lower riparian States of Bangladesh and India. This is the reason why New Delhi emphasised the need for transparency and consultations with downstream countries while conveying its concerns over the mega dam project to Beijing. It isn’t enough for a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson to claim the project won’t negatively impact other regions, especially at a time when ecological experts have questioned the viability and impact of such massive hydropower dams and the climate crisis has impacted flows of cross-border rivers.

India’s protest over the two new counties created by China that include occupied regions of Ladakh is linked to lingering concerns about the resolution of the overall border issue. The two sides have failed to make major progress in the Ladakh sector after decades of negotiations and the Chinese side still doesn’t seem to be showing appreciation for India’s sensitivities. All of these moves come against the backdrop of China’s unrelenting military modernisation, including the launch of a new naval assault vessel and new stealth combat jets. India must remain as clear-eyed as it is being in its approach to the rapprochement with China and proceed with abundant caution while deciding on the next steps in the bilateral relationship.

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