Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, awards Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the Order of St. Andrew the Apostle the First-Called at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia (PTI)
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trip to Moscow represents a bold diplomatic effort by India to alleviate Russian apprehensions regarding a potential shift in India’s policy. Ever since the war with Ukraine began, Russia has been abandoned by Western democracies, while others have turned cautious in their engagements. To a large extent, the Global South, especially China, rescued Russia from a financial meltdown and international isolation. India continued to have strong economic ties with Russia, but its highest interaction mechanism with Moscow, the annual bilateral summit, stopped after 2021. For the last two years, concerns were mounting within Russian circles that India was not according priority to its ties with Russia.
Moscow harboured suspicions that the perceived shift was due to diplomatic pressure by the US. It seems to have become incumbent upon New Delhi to allay these concerns.
Modi’s visit assumes special significance because few global leaders of his stature, barring Chinese President Xi Jinping, have visited Moscow in the last two years. In his third term in office, PM Modi picked Russia as his first foreign destination for a bilateral meeting. At a time when Russia is confronting Western isolation, such optics matter a lot. Jinping chose Russia as his first destination in March 2023, after his re-election, which Putin reciprocated after being elected in 2024. Such visits help the Kremlin counter the Western narrative of Russia’s global isolation.
India has remained sympathetic to Russia throughout the war. It has refused to condemn Russia, refrained from adverse voting in the UN, and disregarded Western threats of sanctions on its energy imports from Russia. Ironically, India’s trade with Russia reached a historic high of $65 billion in the last financial year, a figure which was unimaginable just two years ago. India’s policy of importing cheap oil from Russia came under severe Western criticism, but the former justified its imports to keep energy prices and inflation under check. New Delhi anticipated the war to be short, hoping that normalcy would return soon. With the war still on, there are serious predicaments policymakers in New Delhi face. India’s diplomacy has come under severe strain in the tug-of-war between the two sides; Western criticism has increased, inflationary pressure looms large, and to its detriment, Russia has moved closer to China.
In fact, Russia’s growing dependence on China represents a serious concern for India. Moscow and Beijing have forged the closest possible ties in their history, generating fears that Russia will become a subordinate partner given the growing economic, demographic and technological asymmetry between them. India’s strong ties with Russia somewhat change the dynamics and empower both sides. New Delhi seeks to offset the Chinese advantage in Eurasia by forging close ties with Russia. With the US and Japan on its side and Russia as a neutral player, India is indisputably better placed than China in the Asian security architecture. Moscow is mindful of New Delhi’s concerns and has somewhat accepted India’s ties with the West, akin to how India has accepted the Moscow-Beijing alignment.
There is nothing spectacular about this visit in terms of substantive agreements except that it adds momentum to the relationship between the two states. As it stands, India-Russia ties are exceptionally comprehensive, covering everything under the sun, from defence and trade to space, nuclear and cultural cooperation. They cooperate actively in multilateral forums such as the BRICS, SCO and the G20. Therefore, more than adding new items to the catalogue, they should focus on revamping existing ties and reviewing the progress regularly.
The trade imbalance has become a significant issue from New Delhi’s perspective. Of the total trade of $65 billion, India’s exports constitute less than $5 billion. This kind of imbalance is unsustainable in the long term. Russia should buy more products from India and invest more in the country. Exploring new areas of joint production can ease the burden on India. Further, a growing Indian concern is whether Russia can fulfil its defence commitments, given the Western sanctions on the supply of semiconductor chips to Russia. India would expect a definite answer and time-bound delivery from the Russian side. A timely supply of defence spare parts and S-400s will alleviate India’s concerns.
Russia must invest more diplomatic and financial resources to finish the pending works for the International North-South Transport Corridor. Russia recently supplied cooking coal to India through this route. Both sides should expedite discussions on the Free Trade Agreement with the Eurasian Union for better trade and commerce.
Finally, the visuals of Modi-Putin’s embrace will send an unequivocal message to the international community that Russia occupies a pivotal place in India’s strategic calculations, and the latter will not yield to external pressures. New Delhi is willing to withstand Western criticism to the extent that it does not escalate to real sanctions and strategic alienation. It appears assured that the West needs India just as much as India needs the West. Hence, PM Modi is meeting with Putin on the same day that NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary in Washington, DC. It’s the geopolitics, stupid!
Kumar is professor, School of International Studies, JNU and author of Re-emerging Russia: Structures, Institutions and Processes
