Modi in Moscow, in a balancing act

The diplomatic tightrope being walked by India over the conflict in Ukraine was on display as Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting at the Kremlin, in the glare of television cameras, that no solution can be found on the battlefield. The optics of the Putin-Modi bonhomie had been marred on the day the Indian leader arrived in Moscow for his first visit to Russia in five years by a Russian missile strike on Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital. Modi amplified his message about ending the war in Ukraine, especially to prevent the death of innocent civilians, and the Global South’s expectations for peace.

The big challenge now will be selling this relationship to New Delhi’s partners in the West as merely an expression of India’s national interests and not an endorsement of Putin’s Ukraine policy or his political system. Images of Modi embracing Putin triggered outrage in the West. While European friends may be willing listeners, Washington, caught in the presidential poll season, might not be amused, though India-US relations appear to have been firewalled from New Delhi’s legacy ties. Despite India’s strong nudge to end hostilities and return to the path of dialogue, Putin appears in no mood to heed such advice. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s critical remarks suggest New Delhi will have to work harder to convince its partners in the West of its stance on Russia.

Modi’s visit to Moscow was also significant for the ambitious target set by the two sides to drive trade to $100 billion by 2030. Two-way trade is already more than double an earlier target of $30 billion by 2025, thanks to India’s massive increase in purchases of crude. Given India’s growing energy needs, achieving the new target shouldn’t be too difficult but the real problem is balancing it. India’s exports to Russia have been insignificant for years and currently languish at $4 billion. Indian corporates and banks with significant exposure to the western financial system are reluctant to venture into Russia because of the fear of sanctions. India’s trade basket will have to be significantly expanded alongside increased access to Russia’s markets and the creation of a reliable system for trade settlement insulated from the West’s extensive sanctions regime. Russia will also have to address India’s continuing concerns about Moscow moving closer and closer to Beijing. However, India-Russia relations have stood the test of time and the message from the Moscow meet is that it continues to be on an even keel.

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