The 2024 elections point to a reviving Congress with Rahul Gandhi’s image having undergone a change due to the two Yatras he led. (Express Photo)
The INDIA bloc’s stunning performance in Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 general election is a major reason for the NDA remaining below the 300 mark and the BJP failing to gain a majority on its own. In a closely fought election, the INDIA bloc was able to wrest 43 seats while the NDA obtained 36; the SP obtained 37 seats, the Congress six, and the BJP 33. The results were met with surprise because UP is the conservative “heartland” where under Narendra Modi, the Hindutva ideology has grown deep roots.
Before the election began, the BJP was confident of repeating its 2019 performance in UP. But as voting proceeded, with a low voter turnout, lack of a pro-Modi wave and local issues reaching the centre-stage, it became apparent that the BJP faced a stiff contest. In fact, several significant developments in UP over the last few years — which have not been given adequate attention — underlie the results: The formation of the INDIA bloc by a resurgent SP, the improved image of Rahul Gandhi, growing unease with the Yogi Adityanath government, particularly among the Dalit community and sections of OBCs, and most importantly, the poor condition of the UP economy which has disproportionately impacted the poorer and disadvantaged sections.
A resurgent SP
The main architect of the INDIA bloc has been a resurgent SP under Akhilesh Yadav. In the 2022 assembly election, for the first time since 2014, a leader could challenge the hegemonic BJP, who lost a whopping 57 seats; the SP increased its tally by 67 seats and polled 36.32 per cent votes. Akhilesh single handedly created an anti-BJP front of smaller OBC and Dalit parties, and the Babasaheb Vahini to attract Dalit votes. Positioning himself as the leader of the “pichhda”, he changed the election discourse to a battle between Hindutva and social justice. In 2024, keen to take his success forward, he patiently negotiated seat distribution with a demanding Congress, agreeing to give it 11 seats, retaining 62. He made efforts to further shed the image of the SP as a Muslim-Yadav party by giving tickets to only five Yadavs — his own family members — distributing the rest to diverse, influential non-Yadav backward communities, compared to the earlier formula in which Yadavs and Muslims, received above 40 per cent. In the 17 reserved seats in UP, many tickets were allocated to non-Jatavs.
A reviving Congress
The 2024 elections point to a reviving Congress with Rahul Gandhi’s image having undergone a change due to the two Yatras he led. Congress’s victory in Amethi and Rae Bareli, castigated as dynastic bastions, points to its restored popularity. The Congress manifesto or Nyay Patra with its five guarantees, was well received, particularly its promise of a job guarantee and a constitutional amendment to raise the 50 per cent cap on reservation for SC, ST and OBC groups. Joint rallies by the INDIA alliance began late, but in May, at least six were held, with reports of huge crowds attempting to climb the stage to greet Akhilesh.
The leaders of the INDIA bloc consistently harnessed the discontent on the ground, reiterating people’s issues: The need for a caste census which the BJP was resisting; the fear among Dalit communities that the BJP would change the Constitution depriving them of reservations; the unpopular Agniveer scheme; the repeated leaking of question papers for competitive exams, among others. Their success in moving the discourse away from the communal rhetoric is witnessed in the defeat of the BJP in the Faizabad constituency, where the Ram Mandir is located. Awadesh Singh from the SP, a Dalit leader won the seat.
With the BSP’s unravelling since 2014, the non-Jatavs had preferred the BJP, being wary of the dominant Yadavs and the SP representing them. But, with the SP joining hands with the Congress, they saw the INDIA bloc as a viable alternative. Jatavs have moved away from the BSP, towards the Bhim Army/Azad Samaj party, an Ambedkarite organisation/party formed by Chandrasekhar Azad, a popular leader in western UP. Despite a four-cornered contest, Azad handsomely won the Nagina reserved seat.
Economic Issues
Distress over economic issues such as inflation and rising unemployment brought economic issues to the fore. Official estimates show that the UP economy performed poorly from 2017 to 21 under the Yogi Adityanath government. The gross state domestic product (GSDP) rose at a compound growth rate of merely 1.95 per cent per annum, and per capita income increased by 0.43 per cent. In contrast, the growth rate was 6.92 per cent during the 2012–17 SP government and under the 2007-2012 Mayawati government GDP grew to 7.28 per cent as against the 6.10 per cent target. While many point to improved law and order, Adityanath’s “bulldozer politics” is disliked. Many large infrastructure projects inaugurated with fanfare by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Yamuna and Ganga Expressways, Sanauta–Purkazi Expressway, the eight-lane expressway from Varanasi to Noida, and the planning for international airports at Kushinagar and Jewar, were initiated by Mayawati and continued by Akhilesh.
In sum, the 2024 election witnessed a fierce, closely contested battle, between the forces of Hindutva and Mandal espousing social justice. The INDIA bloc has been able, in its campaign, to turn back the narrative from “Ram” and communal issues to people’s livelihood problems, both economic and about saving “samvidhan” and democracy. It was able to tap into the unhappiness on the ground and put together a cohesive, meaningful narrative. For the first time since 2014, the BJP has not been able to use polarising communal rhetoric to triumph over dissatisfaction over social and economic issues.
The writer is the author (with Sajjan Kumar) of Maya, Modi, Azad: Dalit Politics in the Time of Hindutva (2023)
Click here for real-time updates on the Lok Sabha Election Results 2024
