Synopsis
Exit Poll 2024: Voting for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assembly elections is happening today. Exit poll results will be released after voting ends. The actual election results will be declared on November 23. Exit polls are predictions based on voter feedback. The accuracy of exit polls has been questioned in the past.
AgenciesMost exit polls have predicted a victory for the Mahayuti alliance comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. Most pollsters have forecasted a majority for the ruling alliance, with the BJP emerging as the single largest party, securing seats in three digits. As the actual Maharashtra Assembly results are set to be announced on November 23, here is a look back at what exit polls predicted in the last state elections and how accurate they were.
Exit Poll: Past Accuracy in 2019 Assembly Elections
Exit poll predictions have had mixed results in recent elections. For example, most agencies failed to accurately predict the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Similarly, in the Haryana Assembly Elections, exit polls anticipated a Congress victory, but the BJP returned to power.
In contrast, predictions for the 2019 Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections were relatively accurate. In Maharashtra, exit polls correctly forecasted a win for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, though the actual seat numbers differed. Similarly, in Jharkhand, the exit polls accurately predicted the Congress-JMM-RJD alliance’s victory, though seat projections varied slightly.
Maharashtra Elections 2024
The 2024 Maharashtra assembly elections are witnessing a polarized contest. The ruling Mahayuti alliance, led by the BJP, is backed by Ajit Pawar’s faction of the NCP and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena. On the opposing side is the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, comprising Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), Sharad Pawar’s NCP, and the Congress.
In 2019, exit polls projected 213 seats for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, though the actual tally was lower, with the BJP winning 105 seats and Shiv Sena securing 56. The Congress and NCP garnered 44 and 54 seats, respectively. This election comes amidst significant political shifts, including splits in the Shiv Sena and NCP.
Read More: Maharashtra Exit Poll Highlights
The Scenario in Jharkhand
In Jharkhand, the ruling JMM-Congress-RJD alliance is seeking reelection. In 2019, exit polls predicted 41 seats for the alliance in the 81-member assembly, a forecast close to the actual outcome. The JMM emerged as the largest party, winning 30 seats, followed by the BJP with 25.
Read More: Jharkhand Exit poll Highlights
For the 2024 elections, the JMM is contesting 43 seats, while the Congress and RJD are fielding candidates in 30 and six seats, respectively. The alliance faces challenges from the BJP, which is campaigning aggressively to regain power.
