If ever one compiled a list of electoral contests involving complexities and requiring an astute mind comparable to a chess player’s, the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly poll would be right on top.
With two opposing alliances — the BJP-led ruling Mahayuti and the Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) — encompassing rival factions of the two key regional players, apart from rebels and a number of smaller outfits like the Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM and the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) adding to the unpredictability, a lot is at stake for each player who has thrown their hat in the ring.
In the first Assembly polls since the splits in the Shiv Sena and NCP, the bragging rights could well be decided by a key factor — Manoj Jarange-Patil. He is the Maratha quota activist who kept both sides on tenterhooks with his initial indecisiveness, but the suspense eventually fizzled out when he withdrew from the race, leading both camps to believe that his sitting out will benefit the other.
For the two Shiv Sena factions — led by Eknath Shinde of the Mahayuti and Uddhav Thackeray of the MVA — and the NCP factions — led by Ajit Pawar of the Mahayuti and Sharad Pawar of the MVA — there is more in the offing than just the quest for supremacy. Even as the courts and Assembly Speaker Rahul Narwekar have pronounced their verdicts on who the real parties are — Shinde in case of the Sena and Ajit in case of the NCP — leaders of each of the four outfits would want to rest their cases “in the people’s court”.
As Ajit gears up for a fierce contest in the Pawar family bastion of Baramati, he will keep a close eye on the results. He knows well that any alliance within striking distance or just above the magic figure of 145 will ensure he becomes kingmaker which will allow him to fulfil his long-cherished dream of becoming chief minister.
The senior Pawar, who largely reserved his attacks on the NCP “traitors” during his campaign, is likely hoping to make his last mark in the state’s politics and stun his opponents like he has for the better part of his political career.
Uddhav seems to have the highest stakes in the game right now. Apart from fighting the “survival-of-the-fittest battle”, he will look to reclaim his father Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy from “gaddar” Shinde. Even though not in the fray, with Shinde’s better strike rate in the Lok Sabha polls, Uddhav is sure to have sleepless nights leading up to November 23. Two consecutive losses to his rival faction will most likely sound the death knell for his political career.
For Shinde, the polls will be an opportunity to prove himself as the rightful heir of Balasaheb and the “real party chief” apart from cementing his place within the Mahayuti. A good performance will provide him with the much-needed bargaining chip to stay firmly in the CM’s chair.
However, parties and leaders are aware that the “mix and match” in Maharashtra’s political landscape since 2022 has put the onus firmly on the candidates. An MVA leader from Jalgaon put it aptly, “Hazar kilo khichadit makyacha ek dana shodhnya sarkha aahe (It is as confusing as trying to find a grain of corn from 1,000 kg of khichdi).”
For the national parties, the stakes may be a little different, but they are equally high. The BJP will look to “avenge” its Lok Sabha drubbing, seek a seal of approval from the people following the splits in the Sena and NCP, and treat the elections as a referendum on its term. One man in the BJP — Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis — would be praying for a good show by his party as it will help him reclaim his “lost throne”.
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For Congress too, a good show is imperative to make sure that it gets the “big brother” tag in the MVA. On the contrary, a poor showing close on the heels of its dismal Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir performances is likely to see it lose its Lok Sabha steam.
Given the high stakes, no party or alliance has left anything to chance. The Mahayuti, since its Lok Sabha drubbing only a few months ago, has gone on a project and sop spree as it aggressively pushes its Hindutva agenda even at the cost of rubbing one of its allies (Ajit’s NCP) the wrong way. On the other hand, the MVA has promised a slew of measures to keep the momentum of the parliamentary polls, even if it meant a promise to increase aid under a Mahayuti scheme — the Ladki Bahin Yojana — which it initially opposed citing economic burden on the state exchequer.
One thing is for sure: Every stakeholder in the election waits with bated breath for November 23. Only that day will tell if Maharashtra will see history from five years ago repeat itself, a plausible scenario as a greater number of players vie for the honours.
pushkar.banakar@expressindia.com
