‘MAGA, India First’: Why Donald Trump’s return will solidify India-US trade, security ties

The assessment that India will face no problems with the 47th US President is rooted in the close relationship shared between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Donald Trump and the actions taken by the US leader during his previous tenure.

On Wednesday night, PM Modi dialled US President-elect Donald Trump after the latter swept the US Presidential elections with his party gaining control of the Senate and in a dominating position in the Congress.

The warm conversation between the two leaders lasted around 30 minutes with President-elect Trump calling India and PM Modi magnificent and his and America’s true friends. PM Modi was not only among the first global leaders to congratulate President-elect Trump on social media X but also was among the first leaders to call him on the same day.

The two leaders share a close friendship which is underlined by both putting their respective national interests first and foremost. Trump’s slogan “Make America Great Again” jives with Modi’s commitment to “India First” as both leaders put their citizens as a priority under every circumstance. They are tough on terror and illegal immigration.

Unlike other countries in Europe, West and East Asia, India is looking positively to the Presidency of Donald Trump and has welcomed his election. Consider this:

1. It was Donald Trump who restarted QUAD in 2017 to balance power in the Indo-Pacific. It was he who raised the QUAD to the level of Foreign Ministers in 2019.
2. The Republican leader speedily supported India during the PLA transgression in East Ladakh in May 2020.
3. Donald Trump was instrumental in clearing the lease of two Sea Guardian drones for the Indian Navy and was also one who gave a political nod to the sale of Predator Armed Drones to India.
4. He was sympathetic towards the Modi government for removal of Article 370 and Article 35A in Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019 and also understood the need for the Citizenship Amendment Act. He was in India when the anti-CAA riots were orchestrated in Delhi by Islamists.
5. Even though there were arguments between India and US on trade tariffs, Trump was all for greater investments into India and for Indians to invest in the US.
6. He stood up against China on the dumping issue.
7. Trump, unlike the European powers, recognized that transition from fossil fuels for developing countries like India cannot be done rapidly but only over a period of time.
8. In his previous tenure, Trump was respectful of Indian sovereignty and let the natural balance of power play out between India and Pakistan.
9. Trump has been strong against terror and virtually recognized India’s right to retaliate against Pakistan based terrorist groups during the Indian Air Force attack on Jaish-e-Mohammed terror camp in Balakot in response to February 14, 2019 suicide attack at Pulwama.In the run-up to the Presidential elections, Trump castigated the interim government in Bangladesh for not being able to prevent attacks on minorities including Hindus and Christians by Islamists.

With Trump and his Republican Party getting a decisive electoral mandate, the US President-elect would be seeking a legacy in his final term as President. This means that Trump will revive American power through a robust economy and powerful enforcement of laws against those taking advantage of American laxness on trade and illegal immigration issues in the past. In this direction, Trump will seek parity in trade tariffs with countries including China and India to bring back manufacturing and jobs in the US.

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While it is still two and a half months for Trump to take over as US President, it is quite evident from his statements and interview in the run-up to the Presidential elections that he is in favour of putting an end to the long-festering Ukraine war. Given his domestic priorities, President Trump will seek a resolution on the Ukraine war with President Vladimir Putin as he would rather invest USD 50 billion within his own country than in defending Kyiv. While working out a peace deal between the two warring parties may not be easy as Russia has annexed significant territory in East Ukraine, Trump may ask Europeans to put their money where their mouth is if they want to militarily support Zelensky. But one thing is sure and that is pressure will mount on President Zelensky to work out a mutually acceptable deal as Russia is also looking for guarantees vis-à-vis NATO.

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In the ongoing Israel-Gaza war, President Trump’s administration will push Israel towards an early end to military operations in Gaza as all the principal perpetrators of the October 7, 2023 massacre in South Israel have been eliminated including Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif and Ismail Haniyeh. Hezbollah has been dealt a body blow by Netanyahu and if the Shia terrorist group which has umbilical cords with Tehran agrees to a no-war buffer between the Israel-Lebanon border and the Litani river, then a workable solution is possible. But for any Middle-East resolution concerning Israel, Iran will have to be tackled by the US as all non-state actors in West Asia are fronts of the Islamist regime in Tehran.

President Trump’s policies on terrorism are expected to be strong as he has demonstrated in his past tenure when the US took down Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Chief Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad on January 3, 2020. Soleimani was the right-hand man of Ayatollah Al Khamenei and was responsible for clandestine operations and killings in West Asia at the behest of the Tehran regime.

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While the Western liberal media has tried to paint Trump as a unilateralist maverick, the Republican leader in his victory speech gave signs of seeking accommodation with his political adversaries in the larger American interests.

India for one is looking forward to closely working with Trump to continue the progress made in the strong and multifaceted bilateral relationship. After seeing PM Modi in his elements at the Howdy Modi mega rally in Texas in 2019 and the Namaste Trump power show at Ahmedabad in 2020, Trump not only respects the three-time PM but also is fond of Indian people. It is a win-win for both India and the US with Trump in Washington next January.

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