Last year’s not-so-good southwest monsoon as the also post-monsoon and winter season rains — courtesy of El Niño — have affected the country’s agricultural production
At 50.43 billion cubic metres (BCM), water levels in 150 major reservoirs of the country are just 28.2 per cent of their full storage capacity. That’s below the 62.21 BCM of a year ago and the last 10-years’-average of 52.73 BCM for this time. The situation is worse in the southern states, where the reservoirs are just 15.7 per cent full. The Nagarjuna Sagar, Somasila, Yeleru, Priyadarshini Jurala, Kaddam, Krishnaraja Sagara, Tungabhadra and Tattihallia reservoirs in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka have gone practically dry.
While the current focus may be on elections, that may well change one month from now, when all eyes will be on the monsoon. The Indian economy’s growth fortunes are not as much a “gamble on the monsoon” as it was during the time the British Viceroy George Curzon made those famous remarks. But two bad monsoons can certainly mar the picture.
Last year’s not-so-good southwest monsoon as the also post-monsoon and winter season rains — courtesy of El Niño — have affected the country’s agricultural production. This is evidenced by government agencies procuring only about 47 million tonnes (mt) of rice during October-April 2023-24, 5.7 per cent down from the corresponding period of 2022-23.
Wheat procurement, too, has been sluggish, with some 21 mt bought so far and expected to only reach 26-28 mt, as against an original target of 35 mt. Retail prices of pulses, sugar, potato, onion, tomato and most other vegetables are ruling significantly higher than last year, which also point to poor crops. El Niño’s impact has been not only on rainfall, but also temperatures. Wheat yields in central India, for instance, have taken a hit from an unusually warm November-December, compromising the crop’s tillering and vegetative growth. The scorching summer right from April has been attributed no less to El Niño.
Thankfully, El Niño seems to be signing off, with most global models indicating it to weaken to a “neutral” phase by June and even developing into a La Niña during the second half of the four-month monsoon season (June-September). Given the past association of La Niña with surplus rainfall in India — the Met Department’s forecast of a “most likely to be above normal” monsoon this year is based mainly on it — that is a good augury. Either way, for the government taking over post-elections, the primary challenge in its first 100 days might be to manage food inflation in the event of the monsoon turning out not so great. One must hope for the best but always prepare for the worst.
