One of the fundamental rules of quantum mechanics states that reality doesn’t exist in a definitive state independent of observation. This doesn’t claim that reality happens because of mere observation, it just means that observation reveals a version of reality that is unique to the observer. It’s a lesson that pollsters, politicians, journalists, and anyone who is the business of keeping track of votes in a democracy out to remember, to hold one’s horse till the fat lady sings.
Therefore, it’s always important to wait till the end of the match to see the real nature of perceived reality (a phrase coined by the venerable TOI columnist Jug Suraiya) as opposed to their imagined reality.
Elections aren’t fought on paper, and one shouldn’t jump the gun beforehand nor should they assume that the voter has already made his or her choice. These shockers are reminders of why one ought to wait for one’s analysis till the fat lady sings.
Here are some of the biggest winners and losers of the 2024 Lok Sabha General Election and the Assembly Elections that were simultaneously held:
Lok Sabha Elections
Assembly Elections
1)
If there’s one man who can be considered the MVP of the election, it has to be the Chandrababu Naidu who will be patting himself on the back for a series of wise decisions. Five years ago, he was jailed by the YS Jagan Mohan Reddy government in the skill development scam case and was released on October 31, 2024. Eight months later, he is perhaps the most important ally for BJP in the NDA who are crossing the majority mark thanks to the ___ seats in which TDP is leading. Naidu was also crucial in stitching an alliance with Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena and BJP. As part of the seat-sharing deal of the NDA partners, TDP was allocated 144 assembly seats and 17 Lok Sahba constituencies, while the BJP contested six Lok Sabha and 10 assembly seats. Jana Sena meanwhile contested two Lok Sabha and 21 assembly seats.
In the Andhra assembly election, the TDP-led alliance is leading in 160 of the 175 seats. In the Lok Sabha, the alliance is leading in 21 of the 25 seats, making Naidu, who was part of the UPA alliance in 2019, one of the BJP’s most important allies right now.
2)
For two elections in a row, it seemed like that the BJP was unsurmountable in Uttar Pradesh. The received wisdom was that BJP would do just as well, if not better this time around because of the Ram Mandir inauguration but the final numbers suggest that it’s neck-to-neck between BJP and SP. Akhilesh’s SP, the cornerstone of the INDI alliance in Uttar Pradesh is currently leading in 35 seats with the Congress leading in 7. The leitmotif of Indian politics has always stated that the road to Delhi is through Uttar Pradesh and NDA-3’s journey was certainly made more tumultuous by Akhilesh Yadav and SP. During the 2017 Assembly Elections, the unofficial anthem of the Congress-SP alliance was “UP ke ladke” and it might have taken six years for the it to materialise, but it looks like it final did. If things hold, they might even better their performance from 2004.
3) Uddhav Thackeray
Maharashtra politics just hasn’t been the same since 2019, when Uddhav Thackeray and the original Shiv Sena parted ways with the BJP to join the MVA. Since then, like his father Uddhav Thackeray built his own personal brand with many praising his calm handling of the Covid-19 crisis in Maharashtra. However, the MVA government fell when Ekanath Shinde split the Sena, ultimately getting control of the party symbol.
It was a big blow for Uddhav Thackeray, a party synonymous with his father Balasaheb Thackeray. However, as far as voters are concerned, it would appear that Uddhav Thackeray is the true inheritor of Shiv Sena’s legacy. At the time of writing, the MVA’s three parties are leading in 28 of the 48 seats and whatever the final count all eyes will be on Uddhav Thackeray when the Maharashtra assembly elections come around next year.
4)
Throughout his career, Nitish Kumar has made it a habit of switching alliances, living up to the weathervane tag that was reserved for his war buddy from the JP days: Ram Vilas Paswan. Before the elections, Nitish Kumar flipped the script once again after he left the INDIA bloc despite being one of its founders. As the final numbers stand, JD(U) along with the TDP, might turn out to be BJP’s most important allies going forward. The 14 seats that the JD(U) are leading in will prove absolutely crucial to the NDA getting a third-term majority. At an event with PM Modi in Patna, Nitish Kumar had promised the Prime Minister Modi that he won’t undergo a change of heart yet again. This had elicited a hearty laugh from the Prime Minister, who will certainly hope that his frequent frenemy doesn’t have another change of heart in the near future.
5)
For a long time, Rahul Gandhi, the de-facto leader of the Indian National Congress has been under-fire for a long time, often treated as an object of ridicule who couldn’t do anything right. Everything he said was subject to mirth, every action mocked. But since then, Gandhi has buckled down. Two long Bharat Jodo yatras, 107 public outreach programmes and a superlative effort will see Congress give their best performance in 10 years.The INC is expected to reach 100 seats, which might not be as high as the numbers that were there under his great-grandfather, grandmother, father or mother, but it’s certainly an improvement and a promise to the BJP that winning elections are certainly going be tougher going forward.
Losers
1) Smriti Irani
A lot of column space – proverbial and literal – was spent on Rahul Gandhi’s decision to contest from Rae Bareli instead of his traditional seat of Amethi. Congress General Secretary Jairam Ramesh had called Gandhi a “seasoned player of politics and chess” and had said that the move was made after “careful consideration”. Instead, Gandhi family’s trusted lieutenant Kishori Lal Sharma was picked to contest from the seat and he’s currently ahead by a margin of 82,000 plus votes against Irani. Five years, ago Irani had shocked everyone by beating Rahul Gandhi in the Gandhi family bastion. It looks like, if the votes hold, that the Congress has managed to wrest back its family bastion.
2) Arvind Kejriwal
In 2014, Arvind Kejriwal emerged as one of most covered figures in Indian politics. The location, the timing and the AAP’s use of social media has seen it become one of the country’s fasting growing parties, but Kejriwal would surely be disappointed with the final tally. For starters, AAP’s performance is dismal in Delhi where they had a seat-sharing pact with Congress and BJP looks set to win all seven seats. In Punjab, the AAP is only leading in three seats, a dismal performance considering the fact that it recently won the Assembly elections in the state handsomely. The party had promised to change politics when it was formed but 12 years after its inception, the party’s roar certainly seems stronger than its bite and has to make-do being a bit-part player in the scheme of national politics.
3) Prajwal Revanna
Over the last few weeks, JD(S)’ Prajwal Revanna, who also happens to be former PM Deve Gowda’s grandson and sitting the Hassan MP from Lok Sabha. Revanna left the country on April 26, even as the hundreds of videosallegedly involving him went viral. He is currently facing charges of multiple instances of sexual abuse by various women and is SIT custody.
