Lessons from Hasina’s debacle

The end came swiftly. Five decades years after her father, the founder of Bangladesh, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, was assassinated in his own home, the curtain fell on Sheikh Hasina’s uninterrupted but controversial 15-year-long rule over Bangladesh. She was unceremoniously bundled out of the country in a helicopter, her legacy irrevocably tarnished by the blood of the hundreds of student protesters shot dead over the past three weeks by government forces and ruling party workers. The immediate trigger for the stir may have been a lopsided reservation policy that set aside a third of government jobs for descendants of freedom fighters — a contested category with ample room for corruption — but anger was building over an election widely seen as a sham, the subversion of the democratic process, sweeping suppression of dissent and crippling anxiety among young people over quality jobs and the possibility that they might lead a life worse than the previous generation.

Hasina’s fall presents a challenge for India, which is now surrounded by a string of regimes that are either diffident or downright unfriendly in the neighbourhood. The 76-year-old leader had deep ties with India and was considered New Delhi’s staunchest friend even as she tried to strike a balance with China. With the country in turmoil, expect Beijing to turn more aggressive in its attempts to fish in troubled waters alongside its old ally, Pakistan. Moreover, the sentiment on the street is currently against New Delhi, seen as an ally of Hasina. When an interim government is created and new elections are called, if at all, it will be key to gauge the foreign policy outlook of the new regime. In sum, even as New Delhi looks to become a global fulcrum between the Great Powers, it will need to carefully evaluate its options in a tricky neighbourhood where it has few friends left and portents of instability cropping up — from Dhaka to Kathmandu.

But there are bigger takeaways at a time when intolerant regimes are mushrooming across the world. Bangladesh’s street uprising – among the first such political action by Gen Z anywhere — was presaged by years of slow erosion of civil liberties, accompanied by sputtering growth amid a downturn in every sector except exports. Hasina refused to heed the warnings, believing that repression could quell genuine anger and a popular homegrown protest could be spun as foreign conspiracy. She was wrong and had to flee. The world should take note.

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