Oct 08, 2024 09:21 PM IST
The changing distribution of votes is at the heart of long-term social realignment and the current election results in the state
Haryana has delivered a historic verdict. Never before has any party come to power for three consecutive terms. Everyone, from ground reports to exit polls, predicted a massive majority for the Congress. How did the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) manage to pull off such an impressive victory?
It might be tempting to read the increase in the BJP’s vote share (compared to last time) and massive seat tally as a pro-incumbent vote. Some may also argue that perhaps the choice of Nayab Singh Saini to replace Manohar Lal Khattar as the chief minister (CM) helped ward off anti-incumbency to a certain degree.
However, it would be naive to argue that there wasn’t any serious discontent with the BJP government in the state. Haryana was the site of protests against several moves of the Centre — the farm laws and the Agnipath scheme. Unemployment and economic anxiety among a section of voters is the reality across India, and Haryana is no exception. And the way wrestlers protesting against the BJP and Wrestling Federation of India heavyweight Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh were treated by the police must have added some level of resentment against the BJP in the state. Finally, the Lok Sabha elections signalled an erosion in the BJP’s Dalit voter base and Rahul Gandhi’s caste census demand too saw some traction in the state.
In hindsight, it would appear that this sentiment was more pronounced among voters from the Jat community. Not surprisingly, the dominant caste anywhere is more vocal and their desires get echoed as the ground reality. The Congress gained 11 percentage points from its 2019 share in this election compared to just three percentage points for the BJP. So, it is possible that the swing of votes on the ground made everyone feel a wave in favour of the Congress. But the rallying of Jat voters towards the Congress is likely to have produced a counter-consolidation of the non-dominant castes.
The changing distribution of votes is at the heart of both long-term social realignment and immediate election results. The Congress, before Bhupinder Singh Hooda became the CM in 2005, had a broader social base, while the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) relied a lot more on the Jat votes. The BJP’s rise in state politics was largely based on using this wedge at a time when the INLD was in decline and the Congress was becoming more Jat-centric.
Though the BJP’s lead over the Congress in terms of vote share in this election is barely one percentage point, the seat share tells a completely different picture. The BJP, in 2014, won 47 seats with 33% votes; however, it could win only 40 seats despite winning 36% votes in 2019. The INLD and its breakaway faction, the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), are declining in strength — from 33% in 2009, 25% in 2014, and 17% in 2019, their share is now down to 5%. This has given the BJP an edge in converting seats at a higher rate.
Some commentators also indicated another chink in the Congress armour — the party getting complacent and getting caught in its own illusory web of being the default beneficiary of its opponents’ weaknesses. Much like what happened in Chhattisgarh in 2023, where a Congress victory seemed like a foregone conclusion, the BJP recognised that it was on a weaker wicket. The party strategised with better SWOT analysis, micro-management of constituencies, including independents and the smaller parties, and took advantage of the factional feud within the Congress. The power tussle between TS Singh Deo and Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh was replayed with Hooda and Kumari Selja in Haryana.
The results signal the decline, if not the end, of dominant families in Haryana politics — the three Lals and the Hooda family. These families have been at the helm of affairs since the formation of the state in 1966. Barring a few short stints by other CMs, these families have ruled the state for most periods. While some members of these families have won, many have lost. There is also another aspect to the marginalisation of these families; if the BJP decides to continue with Nayab Singh Saini or some other non-Jat person as the next CM, then this could be the longest time the state has been ruled by a non-Jat CM. The sense of loss of power among the Jats is likely to increase (so will their reaction in different realms), driving apart the wedge between the dominant and non-dominant communities further. But this may will also put the BJP in a tough situation as far as governance is concerned.
What will be the implication of the Haryana verdict on the upcoming elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand? While it is true that each round of elections can tilt the narrative and momentum in favour of the winner, the next round can also overturn this as we have seen in the past one year. The BJP, perhaps, became overconfident after sweeping the assembly elections in the Hindi heartland states in December 2023. The same applies for the Congress after its improved performance in these parts of the country during the Lok Sabha elections. Parties displaying hubris and getting ahead of voters is a path to be avoided.
Rahul Verma is fellow, Centre for Policy Research (CPR), New Delhi.The views expressed are personal
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