Dec 06, 2024 08:54 PM IST
The political crisis in Paris could not have come at a more inopportune moment for the country and Europe
In retrospect, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, took a huge gamble in calling for snap parliamentary polls in July this year. That act of political folly has unleashed a train of events which now seem clearly beyond his control. The supreme irony is that it is to precisely take back political control that Macron was tempted to go to the electorate in July. The results of that election are too well known to bear any repetition here. The resultant three-way split in the French parliament, with no political faction enjoying a majority, is what has led to the present crisis.
Macron may have thought he bought himself valuable time when he appointed the experienced Michel Barnier, of Brexit negotiations fame, as the prime minister of a minority government. But he probably did not reckon with the leader of the far-Right National Rally, Marine Le Pen, who, having emerged as the “queenmaker”, pulled the plug on the Barnier government by supporting a motion of no-confidence on December 4 in the French parliament. Barnier now has the dubious distinction of being the premier for the shortest possible time in French history. For President Macron, it is back to square one and he will have to look for another premier without any delay.
At the root of all this was the budget for the forthcoming year. France has lived beyond its means for several years now. What this means in technical parlance is that the French fiscal deficit as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has ballooned out of control. The Maastricht Treaty of 1992 prescribes three per cent of GDP as the upper limit for fiscal deficit for States that belong to the European Economic and Monetary Union. The French fiscal deficit is projected to be over 6% for the current year, attracting disciplinary proceedings from the European Commission in Brussels. Barnier, in all fairness, did the sensible thing in his budget which is to suggest 40 billion euros in spending cuts and 20 billion euros in tax increases. This would have brought down the fiscal deficit to 5%, still a long way from the 3% prescribed by Brussels. The Left parties had made it clear that they would vote in favour of the no-confidence motion. The million-euro question was what would Marine Le Pen do?
In the event, she too voted in favour of the no-confidence motion thus sealing the fate of the Barnier government. It is important to analyse the political motives behind this. The National Rally may have only 142 seats out of a total of 577 seats in the French parliament, but with no other political dispensation enjoying an absolute majority, no bill can be passed unless the Macron party joins hands with the extreme Left, which they are loath to do. It is not as if Barnier ignored the claims of Le Pen in his budget proposals; on the contrary, he did put off the electricity price increase in deference to Le Pen. So, what then were the motives of Le Pen? Well, for one thing she desperately wants to win the French presidency next time around. But she is under investigation by the European Union (EU) parliament on charges of embezzlement. If indicted, she could be prevented from holding office for five years — the verdict is due in March next year. If she can force Macron to resign and advance the presidential elections, she can have one last shot at the presidency. She is also flexing her muscles as a Eurosceptic and signalling to her constituency that she is against EU-inspired austerity measures that will affect the purchasing power of ordinary citizens.
President Macron finds himself in a soup. He has ruled out resigning, saying he was voted in by the French till 2027. The most probable thing he will do, therefore, is to find a replacement for Barnier. That is not going to be easy because there is no guarantee the next premier will not face the same fate as Barnier. And should that happen, Macron will face immense pressure to resign and call for fresh presidential elections.
His preferred option, therefore, will be to hang on somehow, even with a technical government, till July next year, when he can again call for legislative elections.
Why is the budget such a big deal in France? Well, the average French person has a degree of entitlement and expectation from the government that is unparalleled in Europe. They get generous pensions, retire earlier than most others in Europe and are entitled to an annual vacation which is the envy of all. Above all, they expect the government of the day to rein in inflation, keep unemployment in check and provide free health care and education. To say this is a tall order for any government in the world today would be an understatement.
In terms of geopolitics, the political crisis in France could not have come at a worse time. For one thing, it comes close on the heels of the crisis in Germany. France and Germany are really the locomotive of the EU and the fact that they are both in a state of crisis does not bode well. This comes at a time when the conflict in Ukraine is delicately poised. There is also the impending Trump presidency in the United States. The EU risks being absent from the geopolitical scene at a crucial juncture for the global order.
France has a reputation for being ungovernable. French politicians seem to be doing everything they can to ensure that their country lives up to that reputation.
Mohan Kumar is a former ambassador to France and is currently dean/professor at OP Jindal Global University.The views expressed are personal.
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