Elections in Uttar Pradesh (UP) are turning bipolar and are now fought between two coalitions led by the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP), compelling smaller parties to ride piggyback on either of the two ideological combinations, which have vertically divided the state. Since 2014, a resurgent BJP and the unswerving SP have been on a growth trajectory, both in vote percentage and seats, both in the Lok Sabha and the Vidhan Sabha elections.
The BJP did suffer a setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in which its individual tally tumbled from 62 in 2019 to 33 but in terms of vote percentage it still led the flock with 41.37 % votes with SP (without allies) trailing with 33.59 % and winning 37 seats. To be sure, in bipolar elections, a high vote percentage does not always reflect in the number of seats.
In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) cost the SP dear as its vote percentage fell to 18.11% and five seats but the party made a swift recovery in the 2022 assembly polls, securing 32 % votes and winning 111 seats while BJP created a history of sorts with chief minister Yogi Adityanath winning a second consecutive term, a feat accomplished until then, only by Sampurnanand in 1957. The BJP’s vote share went up from 39.7%to 41.3% but the number of seats fell from 312 to 255.
Take for instance, the recent by-polls for nine seats. Though the BSP also fielded candidates, it failed to mark its presence in what turned out to be a direct battle between the BJP and the SP. Neither Mayawati nor her nephew Akash Anand campaigned for the by-polls, leaving candidates to fend for themselves.
The loss of confidence in the BSP is apparent in the Katehri assembly segment of the Ambedkarnagar Lok Sabha constituency, thrice represented by Mayawati in 1998, 1999 and 2004. The SP MP, whose wife contested the by-poll on an SP ticket, as well as the BJP candidate, were at one time strong pillars of the BSP. They shifted loyalties after BSP lost political ground. Here also, Mayawati made no effort to reverse the slide in fortune.
By late afternoon Saturday, the by-poll results were in: The BJP-RLD won 7 seats and SP two in a closely contested polls. The victory margin on majority of the seats is couple of thousand votes. However, it’s a set back for SP, which had won four of these seats in 2022.
Irrespective of the results, the SP fought the electoral battle on two fronts – one on the ground and the second on social media, bombarding the platforms with images and videos of cops preventing Muslim voters, especially women from casting their votes. One clip in which a cop took out his pistol, stopping women voters from going to the polling booth went viral. The BJP held press conferences, albeit late, to counter the allegations with their statements about fake voting by people in burqas to hide their identity.
Bipolarity of polls
Interestingly, most of the smaller political parties have already aligned with NDA or the INDIA with both also holding on to their allies – the BJP has carefully stitched caste-based alliances represented by Apna Dal (Kurmi), Nishad Party and Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (Rajbhar), ignoring the mercurial temperament of their leaders.
Similarly, the SP has remained with the Congress with their leaders Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi ironing out differences. That wasn’t an easy task, given the SP’s anti-Congress antecedents and the Congress party’s keenness to revive the party in a state it had ruled until the end of the 1980s.
A few notable parties, which have not allied with any of the two formations are – the BSP, the Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) of Bhim Army founder Chandrashekhar Azad, who made a maiden entry into Lok Sabha in 2024; the AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi; Jansatta Dal (Loktantrik) of Raghuraj Pratap Singh aka Raja Bhaiya who continues to have influence over voting patterns in constituencies in and around his home district of Pratapgarh.
The BSP has ruled the state four times but has been on a downslide primarily because of the inactivity of its leader Mayawati since 2014. A party, which had once dreamt of giving the country its first Dalit prime minister, has been unable to hold on to its committed core constituency of SC/ST voters with other ancillary supporters also deserting the BSP. It had failed to win even one seat in the Lok Sabha though it had scored a 10 in 2019 and could win only one seat in a 403-member UP Vidhan Sabha in 2022, completely conceding the opposition space to the SP. Today, the BSP is seen more as a B-team of the BJP than a party that politically empowered Dalits, who are now in huge demand every election.
As BSP becomes redundant, its disillusioned core voters (Dalits) have been on the move, exploring options. When the Constitution became an explosive issue in 2024, Dalits, experts said, felt that Mayawati let them down; they moved to INDIA. Ideologically, they are willing to ride the Hindutva bandwagon but socially they mistrust the Brahmins and the Thakurs. Thus, the SP’s PDA (Pichra, Dalit and Alpasankhyak) formula appeals to them as they have no qualms in returning to the Congress.
On the other hand, SP chief Yadav has sent the right political signals by fielding prominent Dalit leaders even from unreserved constituencies. However, socially, the SP will have to ensure bonhomie between Yadavs and Dalits who have been traditionally antagonistic to each other.
The bipolarity is not limited to polls but has filtered down to caste and social alliances as well. In fact, together, the SP and the Congress are reconstructing the formidable troika of Dalits, Brahmins and Muslims. The first choice of Brahmins is the BJP, though they do selectively vote for the alliance. On the other hand, the BJP is desperate to reunite its Hindu vote bank but the SP’s PDA campaign has proved to be a major roadblock despite various welfare schemes launched for the poor and the RSS outreach programmes in areas inhabited by Dalits and backwards.
Eventually the SP took on an aggressive BJP and managed to win three seats – one short of their 2022 tally. The BJP had won three, the Nishad party one and Rashtriya Lok Dal one.
