Nov 20, 2024 09:02 PM IST
Pollster P-Marq also gave an edge to the JMM-Congress alliance, projecting a win for them with 37-47 seats. The BJP has been predicted to bag 31-40 seats.
In the exit polls for the 2024 Jharkhand Assembly elections, psephologist Pradeep Gupta-led Axis My India predicted a massive win for the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-Congress-RJD alliance in the state.
In contrast to the majority of exit poll projections, which predicted a win for the BJP-led NDA, Axis My India projected a massive victory for the JMM-Congress alliance. According to the pollster, JMM-Congress combine is predicted to win 53 seats, while the BJP-led NDA is shown to bag 25 seats.
Psephologist Pradeep Gupta’s Axis My India released its exit poll predictions independently. The pollster used to collaborate with the India Today news channel. However, they parted ways earlier this year.
Axis My India projections
In a demographic breakdown, Axis My India showed geographic vote share for the parties in the exit polls for the 2024 Jharkhand elections.
The party-wise seat share as shown by Axis My India:
NDA (17-27 seats)
- BJP: 16-26
- AJSUP: 0-1
- JD(U): 0-1
- LJP(RV): 1
INDIA (49-59 seats)
- JMM: 32-36
- Congress: 13-16
- RJD: 3-4
- CPI(ML): 1-3
JLKM: 1-4 seats
Others: 0-2 seats
Rural vote share prediction shows an upper hand to the INDIA bloc (JMM-Congress) with 46%, NDA at 35%. Similarly, the urban vote share projections also gave 44% to the INDIA bloc and 40% to the NDA bloc.
Only the senior citizens age group (61 and above) have been predicted to give an edge of 44% to NDA. Pradeep Gupta’s firm has projected the rest of the age groups, including first-time voters, to have given an upper hand to the INDIA bloc.
What did others pollsters say
P-Marq also projected an edge for the JMM-Congress partnership, predicting a win for them with 37-47 seats. The pollster predicted the BJP to secure 31-40 seats.
Other pollsters like Matrize, Peoples Pulse, and Times Now-JVC projected a win for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance.
According to Matrize, NDA is predicted to win 42-47 seats, INDIA bloc for 25-30 seats, and Others for 1-4 seats.
ALSO READ | Jharkhand exit polls 2024: Most pollsters predict NDA win; Axis My India says INDIA ahead
The NDA is projected to win 40-44 seats, INDIA to bag 30-40 seats, and Others just one, as per the Times Now-JVC predictions.
Peoples Pulse predicted NDA to win 44-53 seats, INDIA 25-37 seats, and Others 5-9.
What did 2019 exit polls say
During the 2019 exit polls, Axis My India partnered with the India Today Group. It had projected an edge for the JMM-Congress combine. It had said that JMM-Cong alliance would win 43 seats, while the BJP would win 27.
ABP-Voter predicted a hung assembly, projecting 35 seats for UPA and 32 to the BJP. Times Now projected 44 seats for the opposition and 28 for the then-ruling BJP.
The United Progressive Alliance (UPA), comprising Congress and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, emerged victorious in the 2019 Jharkhand assembly polls.
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