In 2006, British intelligence discovered a chilling transatlantic aircraft plot that changed air travel forever. Airports around the world have since then not allowed water or beverages to be taken onto airplanes.
A Pakistani national, Rashid Rauf, connected to Pakistan’s Maulana Masood Azhar and the Jaish-e-Mohammed, channelled funds through charities set up for aiding victims of the 2005 Pakistan Occupied Kashmir earthquake into a plot to bring liquid bombs on airplanes and blow them up on transatlantic flights. While the plot was thwarted, its legacy endures: Liquids, even water, are still banned from most flights, reshaping air travel security worldwide.
Israel’s mass assassination through a potent technological feat — using explosive-laden pagers to target individuals — threatens a new era and wave of violence around the world. This innovation redefines the nature of modern terrorism, much like the 2006 plot reshaped aviation security.
What stands out in all of this is the infiltration of the Hezbollah and Hamas by the Mossad (the Israeli secret service). The former exposed itself far too much while assisting President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, thereby helping the Mossad to collect a wealth of information of great value to the operation that killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon.
The backstory of Israel’s missions, now with its tanks rolling into Lebanon after massive bombing strikes that have killed many in the Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iranian revolutionary Guard leadership, is in fact a bigger game changer. Israel did not seek approval from the United States (US) for any of its cross-border missions and has resisted and rejected all calls for ceasefire. Is this daring or sheer recklessness? Only time will tell.
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy sent forces into Russian territory, taking swathes of the Kursk region without Washington’s explicit approval. It is unimaginable that Ukraine or Israel could continue to fight wars without support from the US. And yet, regional actors and client States no longer wait for the green light from superpowers like the US — they are taking aggressive, independent actions that outpace Washington’s strategy and tactics. India is watching and absorbing lessons. Pakistan cannot take us for granted. There is a limit to patience and forbearance.
While Israel has delivered debilitating blows to Iranian proxies, Iran remains a significant regional power. It has endured nearly five decades of crippling sanctions and conflict, from the Iran-Iraq war in 1982 to the US-led invasion of Iraq. Grassroots support for Tehran and its network of militant groups continues, though Iran’s leadership has been weakened by a spate of assassinations targeting commanders of the Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israel’s technological superiority, bolstered by unwavering US and European support, has significantly outmatched Iran in these proxy wars.
Israel’s resilience is equally remarkable. Despite its small size, the country has aggressively pursued its military objectives, particularly in its confrontations with Hamas and Hezbollah. There is, however, a thin line between daring and reckless. The bipartisan support Israel enjoys in Washington means that, regardless of political shifts in the US, Israel can count on the backing of the combined $48 trillion Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the US and the European Union. Iran, with a GDP shy of half a trillion dollars, faces decades of isolation and stagnation. Israel will bounce back to its innovation-driven growth. Such confidence risks make Israeli leadership far too erratic and adventurous and threatens to open a Pandora’s Box of threats for the whole world.
The United Nations, relegated to the role of a passive observer, offers little hope for peace through diplomacy. Western diplomacy, too, seems more intent on fuelling conflict than negotiating ceasefires. US and European diplomacy in Ukraine war is possibly more about providing weapons than sustaining peace talks. Diplomats have now become brokers of war rather than peace. This should concern every one of us.
Amidst these geopolitical tremors, India is a unique voice of restraint. When the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, condemned India over the treatment of its Muslim population, New Delhi’s sharp rebuttal underscored its commendable unwillingness to be drawn into the rhetoric. India has maintained equal proximity to Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Palestine — something that cannot be said of any global power. As the only major power steering clear of military entanglements, India has positioned itself as a potential peacemaker in multiple conflicts because western diplomacy has left a vacuum of credibility.
Yet, as western powers grow increasingly entangled in conflicts with Russia, Iran, and China, India may find itself forced to adopt a more assertive stance too. In the words of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “There is no place… that the long arm of Israel cannot reach.”
For India, this might be prophetic as it may soon need to defend its economic and security interests against terrorism, extremism far from its territories without relying on the traditional superpowers of the 20th century. No one else can deliver India the maritime, energy and economic security it needs to survive and grow. The lesson to be learned from history of explosive situations in multiple hotspots underscores the need for Indian readiness to deal with very difficult situations without warning or notice.
RK Raghavan is a former high commissioner of India, and Ajay Goyal is a former director of Central Bureau of Investigation, New Delhi.The views expressed are personal
