In the last few weeks, Israel and Iran have crossed all the red lines in their decades-long shadow war. Israel did this on April 1 when it bombed an Iranian consular building in Damascus, killing several high-ranking Iranian revolutionary guard officers. On April 13, Iran retaliated by launching an attack from its mainland on Israel. This is the first time Tehran has done this, whereas in the past it relied on non-state proxy militias to do its work, giving it plausible deniability and the cover of ambiguity.
Now, however, Iran launched the world’s largest combined drone, cruise, and ballistic missiles assault. The war is in the open and no longer being fought in the shadows. As a result, we have witnessed an Israeli retaliation by missiles and drones on Iranian military bases – another step closer to a broader war in West Asia and one that may drag the United States and other Arab countries into the fray, with severe global consequences.
Speeding up Iran’s nuclear weapons programme
Unlike Israel’s successful strike on April 13, Iran’s projectiles were entirely blocked by Israel’s air force and anti-missile defense systems, albeit with the help of US, British, French allies, and Jordan because many of the drones flew through its airspace. The Iranians intended to do great harm to Israel, despite claims to the contrary, and their failure to accomplish this represents a humiliation. Hence, President Biden counselled Israel not to retaliate but rather to “take the win” of having blocked Iran’s attack. Yet, as expected, Israel’s Prime Minister and his right-wing government have rejected America’s prudent advice and sought to re-establish deterrence by attacking Iran directly.
Unfortunately, this most recent attack will only speed up Iran’s nuclear weapons programme, which is close to breakout time. The immediate question now is whether Iran will retaliate again or take a longer time to do so. The messages about this from Tehran have been mixed, with some claiming the most recent Israeli attack to be insignificant, and thus not worth responding to, while other officials have stated that there will be a massive response.
Whatever the case may be, the gloves are off between Israel and Iran, and this is a troubling sign of worse things to come. What makes the leaders of these two countries engage in such high-risk attacks that can destabilise the entire region? The answer lies in the nature of the two regimes in Tehran and Jerusalem, who, despite their differences, share several characteristics: Existential fear, radical politics and arrogance. Let’s address the case of Iran first and then turn to Israel.
Khomeini’s ideology, and insecurity about America
The government of the Islamic Republic of Iran is convinced that the United States, and its regional incarnation Israel, are determined to topple its regime. Iran’s leaders are scarred by the eight-year war with Iraq (1980-88) in which Iraq was backed by the Western powers and hundreds of thousands of Iranians were killed and maimed. One of Iran’s tools for projecting influence, and thus self-defence, is its revolutionary ideology, namely, the radical Islamist thought of Ayatollah Khomeini – the revolution’s leader — with its mixture of anti-imperialism, Islamic supremacism, and social justice.
The regime has sought to defend itself by promoting Khomeini’s ideology throughout the Middle East, with the creation of loyal militias that would exert pressure through the threat of violence against both the US and Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon is the prime example of this effort and forms the principal line of deterrence for protecting the Islamic state in Iran. With its 1,50,000 missiles aimed at Israel and its well-trained militia, Hezbollah constitutes a formidable threat to Israel.
This model has been replicated by Iran with comparable militia forces in Syria, Iraq, Hamas in Palestine and the Houthis in Yemen. For example, the Houthis have shown the ability to block maritime shipping through the Red Sea, effectively blocking two choke points, the Bab al-Mandab and the Suez Canal, at Iran’s behest. With these militias, an arrogance about power has developed in Tehran, which today is on full display with its claims to want to destroy Israel and to expel the US from West Asia, thereby establishing its own hegemony over the region. In other words, Iran is a revisionist state that seeks to protect itself by dominating West Asia – disruption and instability of the existing order are its top priority because these serve its interests.
Not without Palestine
Like Iran, Israel’s present government is radical and revisionist. It seeks to eliminate the possibility of a future Palestinian state, thereby denying the people its right to self-determination. It wishes to create a greater Israel in the West Bank and engages in acts of repression of Palestinians and expropriation of their land. In so doing, Israel is allowing the Palestinian cause to fester, which generates radical and violent action, as we saw in the despicable acts on October, 7, 2023, but also in many earlier attacks on Israelis. Iran benefits from and encourages such deeds because it focuses attention on the injustice of Israel (and the West) towards the Palestinians, and this resonates deeply throughout the Arab and Islamic worlds and beyond.
In Saudi Arabia, for example, a country that is ostensibly about to normalise relations with Israel, the war in Gaza has generated nearly two million individual donations for a total of $190 million – this effectively means that half the Saudi population has contributed to alleviate Palestinian suffering. For Israelis, however, all this support for the Palestinians amounts to a desire to see Israel destroyed, and this plays on their existential fears.
The war in Gaza has made clear that the denial of Palestinian rights – and unless their right to a state is granted — there will be instability and violence in West Asia. Spoilers against peace and stability, like Iran and the right-wing government in Israel, will take advantage of this chaos to achieve their maximal goals. Desiring a different outcome, the US, Jordan, Egypt and the Arab Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia have been pleading with Israel to give binding commitments for the creation of a Palestinian state. Their proposal is to return to the two-state solution as envisaged by the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. Yet, Israel’s existential trauma after October 7, the ideology of its right-wing government and the arrogance produced by its military superiority have so far led it to refuse any acknowledgment of a Palestinian state. Unfortunately, without this, there will be no peace or stability in West Asia, and the open wars between Iran and Israel will escalate with dire consequences for all.
The writer is professor, Near Eastern Studies, Princeton University and the Nelson Mandela Visiting Chair in Afro-Asian Studies at Mahatma Gandhi University, Kerala
