Apr 29, 2024 05:52 PM IST
Approximately 109.9 million and 105.9 million people turned up to vote in the first and second phases of the Lok Sabha elections, respectively.
NEW DELHI: Is the voter turnout in 2024 turning out to be lower than in 2019 even in absolute terms? There is good reason to be circumspect about such a claim, according to an HT analysis. Here is why.
There are several caveats to consider in comparing the 2024 turnout figures with those in earlier years. Even with these caveats, turnout figures available so far suggest that the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have seen a lower turnout compared to at least the 2019 elections. Is this drop in percentage turnout big enough for a drop in absolute terms? While this question cannot be answered perfectly, an HT analysis suggests a drop in turnout in absolute terms is unlikely for the two phases of elections held so far. However, the absolute turnout has likely stayed flat, which is also unusual.
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According to data sourced from Election Commission of India (ECI) officials, the overall turnout in the first and second phases was 66.1% and 66.7% respectively. ECI’s press release on the eve of these phases also gave an approximate figure of registered electors for these phases: 166.3 million and 158.8 million in the first and second phases respectively. This means that approximately 109.9 million and 105.9 million people turned up to vote in the first and second phases.
How does the number of voters in 2024 in the first and second phase parliamentary constituencies (PCs) of this election compare with their number in the same PCs in 2019? This is where things get complicated. In both the first and second phase of elections this year, one PC in Jammu and Kashmir and five PCs in Assam have gone to the polls. These PCs (and the turnout in them in 2024) are not comparable with Assam and Jammu and Kashmir PCs that existed earlier because their boundaries were redrawn in a delimitation exercise after the 2019 Lok Sabha election. This means that we have comparable figures for 2019 and 2014 only after excluding six PCs from Assam and Jammu and Kashmir. After excluding these PCs, the turnout in absolute terms in the first phase and second phase PCs of this election was 102.9 million and 97.0 million in 2019; and 92.7 million and 84.7 million in 2014.
If the impact of six Assam and Jammu and Kashmir PCs on the absolute turnout was considered negligible, it would appear that the absolute turnout has increased between 2019 and 2024, just less than between 2014 and 2019. However, there is reason to believe that the impact of the PCs in Assam and Jammu and Kashmir is not negligible. The Chief Electoral Officers (CEOs) of both Assam and Jammu and Kashmir uploaded PC-wise details of registered electors earlier this year.
While the number of registered electors shown in these documents is likely to have been revised until the last day of filing nominations, they can be used (along with their percentage turnout in both phases) to approximately exclude the two regions from 2024 figures as well.
This shows that excluding Assam and Jammu and Kashmir PCs, the absolute turnout in the first and second phases this year was around 102.1 million and 98.4 million. These numbers are roughly the same as in 2019. This is unusual because the trend in these PCs between the Lok Sabha elections from 2009 to 2019 was of growth in voter turnout in both absolute and percentage terms.
The approximate exclusion of Assam and Jammu and Kashmir can also be used to calculate voter turnout in percentage terms excluding the PCs from these regions. This shows that excluding the PCs of these two regions, the turnout was 65.4% in the first phase and 65.9% in the second phase. While these numbers are not very different from the turnout when PCs from Assam and Jammu and Kashmir are included, they help to confirm the trend that the turnout has indeed decreased this year in percentage terms. Excluding Assam and Jammu and Kashmir, the turnout in the first and second phase PCs of 2024 was 69.4% and 69.5% in 2019; and 68.8% and 66.7% in 2014.
To be sure, there are still at least two more caveats to consider before taking these trends as the final word. One caveat is that different parts of Outer Manipur PC have gone to the polls in different phases and it was not possible to separate these parts for turnout figures in results from earlier elections immediately. Similarly, turnout figures at this stage are unlikely to include postal ballot voting. ECI’s Turnout App, used for the Assam and Jammu and Kashmir percentage turnout figures in this analysis, explicitly mentions that such voting is not included in its data. Therefore, the actual drop in percentage turnout may be smaller than the drop in turnout seen in this analysis. Given the approximations used in the calculation of absolute figures, they should also be read as preliminary and only directionally indicative.
- ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Abhishek Jha is a data journalist. He analyses public data for finding news, with a focus on the environment, Indian politics and economy, and Covid-19.
